The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 67%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 11%
8.4 – 8.5 7%
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
67%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
11%
8.4 – 8.5
7%
8.6 – 8.7
6%
8.8 – 8.9
6%
9.0 or above
5%
7.9 or below 67%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 11%
8.4 – 8.5 7%
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$97 Vol.
67%
8.0 – 8.1
$40 Vol.
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$55 Vol.
11%
8.4 – 8.5
$40 Vol.
7%
8.6 – 8.7
$60 Vol.
6%
8.8 – 8.9
$40 Vol.
6%
9.0 or above
$27 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
ভলিউম
$357শেষ তারিখ
Jan 4, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
ভলিউম
$357শেষ তারিখ
Jan 4, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied 66.5% probability for a highest magnitude of 7.9 or below in 2026 reflects USGS records showing the year’s strongest event as the M7.8 Mindanao earthquake of June 7–8, followed by an M7.7 off Flores, Indonesia on August 14 and an M7.4 in Colombia on August 10. No larger events have occurred despite ten M7+ quakes documented so far. Subduction-zone monitoring by the USGS and regional agencies indicates typical aftershock sequences and background seismicity without precursors suggesting an imminent M8+ rupture. Statistically, great earthquakes exceeding M8 occur only a few times per decade globally, supporting trader consensus that the remaining five months are unlikely to produce a new record unless an unexpected megathrust event materializes along high-strain segments such as the Japan Trench or Cascadia.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা