El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% সম্ভাবনা
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% সম্ভাবনা
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$246,739শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$246,739শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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