**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% সম্ভাবনা
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% সম্ভাবনা
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$246,739শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$246,739শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা