NASA’s Artemis program, the primary path to a crewed lunar landing, has faced repeated slips driven by delays in developing SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System and unproven in-orbit refueling capabilities. In February 2026, NASA revised Artemis III into a non-landing test flight targeted for mid-2027, shifting the first landing attempt to 2028 amid technical and schedule challenges. China’s crewed lunar plans remain anchored around 2030, with no alternative human missions positioned for a 2026 attempt. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” reflects these verified timeline realities and the absence of demonstrated hardware readiness this year. While rapid progress on Starship or an unforeseen private initiative could theoretically alter trajectories, current engineering milestones make a landing in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.