Trader consensus on no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 93.6% reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in 2011 Tohoku and none since an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025. With roughly four months remaining, short recurrence intervals—typically decades for great earthquakes—further suppress implied probability amid ongoing but lower-magnitude activity, such as recent 7.7 events in Indonesia. While model consensus and seismic catalogs support this positioning, a sudden large rupture on an active margin like Cascadia or southern Chile remains a low-probability tail risk that could shift odds if new USGS monitoring detects precursors.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% সম্ভাবনা
$312,608 Vol.
$312,608 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% সম্ভাবনা
$312,608 Vol.
$312,608 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 93.6% reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in 2011 Tohoku and none since an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025. With roughly four months remaining, short recurrence intervals—typically decades for great earthquakes—further suppress implied probability amid ongoing but lower-magnitude activity, such as recent 7.7 events in Indonesia. While model consensus and seismic catalogs support this positioning, a sudden large rupture on an active margin like Cascadia or southern Chile remains a low-probability tail risk that could shift odds if new USGS monitoring detects precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ভলিউম
$312,608শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 93.6% reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in 2011 Tohoku and none since an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025. With roughly four months remaining, short recurrence intervals—typically decades for great earthquakes—further suppress implied probability amid ongoing but lower-magnitude activity, such as recent 7.7 events in Indonesia. While model consensus and seismic catalogs support this positioning, a sudden large rupture on an active margin like Cascadia or southern Chile remains a low-probability tail risk that could shift odds if new USGS monitoring detects precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$312,608শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 93.6% reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones. USGS records confirm only a handful since 1900, with the most recent at 9.1 in 2011 Tohoku and none since an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025. With roughly four months remaining, short recurrence intervals—typically decades for great earthquakes—further suppress implied probability amid ongoing but lower-magnitude activity, such as recent 7.7 events in Indonesia. While model consensus and seismic catalogs support this positioning, a sudden large rupture on an active margin like Cascadia or southern Chile remains a low-probability tail risk that could shift odds if new USGS monitoring detects precursors.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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