USGS data and global seismic catalogs confirm that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault reaches the roughly 10,000 km rupture length required by the moment-magnitude scale. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along Chile’s roughly 1,000 km subduction zone; all subsequent monitoring through 2026 shows activity well below this physical limit. Trader consensus at 99.2% “No” reflects established plate-tectonic constraints and the absence of any new observational evidence or model revisions that would alter the upper bound. The only conceivable shifts involve unprecedented revisions to magnitude calculations or discovery of entirely new fault systems, both viewed as negligible given continuous USGS oversight and historical precedent.