A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
49%
2nd hottest
49%
3rd hottest
49%
4th or lower
49%
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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