The absence of any market-triggering events through mid-April 2026—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, or President Trump leaving office—has anchored trader consensus at 63.5% for Yes, reflecting sustained geopolitical stalemates amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that fall short of full invasion or regime change. Bitcoin trades steadily near $75,000, distant from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds; no magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or major meteor strikes reported; Republicans hold Senate majority without supermajority. With 2026 midterms looming, low base rates for tail risks reinforce status quo pricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডকখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
কখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
$502,734 Vol.
$502,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$502,734 Vol.
$502,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe absence of any market-triggering events through mid-April 2026—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, or President Trump leaving office—has anchored trader consensus at 63.5% for Yes, reflecting sustained geopolitical stalemates amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that fall short of full invasion or regime change. Bitcoin trades steadily near $75,000, distant from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds; no magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or major meteor strikes reported; Republicans hold Senate majority without supermajority. With 2026 midterms looming, low base rates for tail risks reinforce status quo pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$502,734শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe absence of any market-triggering events through mid-April 2026—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, or President Trump leaving office—has anchored trader consensus at 63.5% for Yes, reflecting sustained geopolitical stalemates amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that fall short of full invasion or regime change. Bitcoin trades steadily near $75,000, distant from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds; no magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or major meteor strikes reported; Republicans hold Senate majority without supermajority. With 2026 midterms looming, low base rates for tail risks reinforce status quo pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$502,734শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any market-triggering events through mid-April 2026—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, or President Trump leaving office—has anchored trader consensus at 63.5% for Yes, reflecting sustained geopolitical stalemates amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that fall short of full invasion or regime change. Bitcoin trades steadily near $75,000, distant from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds; no magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or major meteor strikes reported; Republicans hold Senate majority without supermajority. With 2026 midterms looming, low base rates for tail risks reinforce status quo pricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা