Traders assign a 71% implied probability to “Yes” on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the market’s resolution triggers—such as leadership changes for Trump or Xi, a U.S. invasion of Iran or Chinese move on Taiwan, Russian incursion into NATO territory, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin or natural-disaster events—have materialized in the first five months of the year. Monthly versions of the market have consistently resolved to stability, and current diplomatic channels, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, remain below escalation thresholds. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the pricing reflects trader consensus that routine legislative, electoral, and agency processes through mid-year have not yet produced the scale of disruption required to shift the outcome, while leaving scope for later developments in the second half.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডকখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
কখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
হ্যাঁ
$593,434 Vol.
$593,434 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$593,434 Vol.
$593,434 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to “Yes” on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the market’s resolution triggers—such as leadership changes for Trump or Xi, a U.S. invasion of Iran or Chinese move on Taiwan, Russian incursion into NATO territory, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin or natural-disaster events—have materialized in the first five months of the year. Monthly versions of the market have consistently resolved to stability, and current diplomatic channels, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, remain below escalation thresholds. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the pricing reflects trader consensus that routine legislative, electoral, and agency processes through mid-year have not yet produced the scale of disruption required to shift the outcome, while leaving scope for later developments in the second half.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$593,434শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to “Yes” on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the market’s resolution triggers—such as leadership changes for Trump or Xi, a U.S. invasion of Iran or Chinese move on Taiwan, Russian incursion into NATO territory, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin or natural-disaster events—have materialized in the first five months of the year. Monthly versions of the market have consistently resolved to stability, and current diplomatic channels, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, remain below escalation thresholds. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the pricing reflects trader consensus that routine legislative, electoral, and agency processes through mid-year have not yet produced the scale of disruption required to shift the outcome, while leaving scope for later developments in the second half.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$593,434শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 71% implied probability to “Yes” on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the market’s resolution triggers—such as leadership changes for Trump or Xi, a U.S. invasion of Iran or Chinese move on Taiwan, Russian incursion into NATO territory, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin or natural-disaster events—have materialized in the first five months of the year. Monthly versions of the market have consistently resolved to stability, and current diplomatic channels, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, remain below escalation thresholds. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the pricing reflects trader consensus that routine legislative, electoral, and agency processes through mid-year have not yet produced the scale of disruption required to shift the outcome, while leaving scope for later developments in the second half.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা