US-Iran tensions escalated into large-scale airstrikes in February 2026 under Operation Epic Fury, degrading Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure without a ground invasion. A ceasefire took hold in April, followed by renewed limited strikes in June amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, the United States and Iran have announced progress toward a formal agreement, with a memorandum of understanding slated for signing on June 19 in Switzerland that would end hostilities, reopen shipping lanes, and address nuclear issues through diplomacy rather than further escalation. President Trump has repeatedly called off planned strikes citing negotiation advances, and no US ground forces have entered Iranian territory. These developments, combined with the high costs of sustained regional operations and institutional preference for negotiated restraints over full-scale invasion, underpin trader consensus that a US invasion before 2027 remains unlikely.