**Trader consensus on an 83.5% probability for “No” reflects the absence of U.S. ground operations during the 2026 Iran conflict and continued emphasis on airstrikes, naval pressure, and diplomacy.** U.S. and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership, but operations remained air- and missile-centric without deployment of ground troops to seize or control Iranian territory. Subsequent developments—including a temporary ceasefire in April, the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by President Trump and Iranian officials, and ongoing Oman- and Pakistan-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz access—have shifted focus toward sanctions relief, nuclear negotiations, and economic arrangements rather than escalation to occupation. President Trump has repeatedly signaled willingness to pause strikes pending diplomatic progress and has ruled out large-scale troop commitments. As of early August 2026, discussions center on reopening maritime routes and compliance frameworks, with no verified moves toward ground offensives before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. These patterns align with historical U.S. preferences for limited-force options in the region and sustain market pricing that a full invasion remains improbable absent major new triggers.