**Ongoing limited strikes and a naval blockade since the February 2026 escalation have not produced a U.S. ground invasion of Iranian territory, supporting the 84.5% trader consensus on “No.”** As of mid-September 2026, exchanges remain confined to airstrikes on coastal and military targets, tanker interdictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and intensified sanctions, with both sides signaling openness to renewed talks including a possible Trump-Pezeshkian meeting at the UN General Assembly. Domestic U.S. opposition, munitions constraints, and the high logistical and political costs of any occupation have kept full-scale invasion off the immediate agenda. Recent Iranian warnings of expanded retaliation and U.S. emphasis on economic pressure further align with traders’ assessment that the current campaign will stay below the threshold of a territorial offensive through year-end.