U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on sustained economic pressure through a January 2026 fuel blockade and related tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, alongside sanctions targeting regime figures, rather than direct military intervention. President Trump has repeatedly called for regime change by year's end and floated a "friendly takeover" amid Cuba's energy crisis following the Venezuela intervention, yet administration statements and Pentagon planning emphasize sanctions, negotiations, and limited options over full invasion. Analysts assess a large-scale ground operation as the least likely scenario due to high costs, urban insurgency risks, and regional security implications, even as surveillance flights and military posturing have increased. Trader consensus at 92.5% against an invasion reflects the preference for non-kinetic tools and the absence of any confirmed preparations for crossing that threshold in the remaining months of 2026.