Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price spikes, alongside firm labor market readings with unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, these readings have shifted expectations toward a prolonged hold as officials prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Futures pricing and economist surveys align with the 73.5% implied probability of unchanged policy, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect risks from persistent price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on employment and inflation remain key near-term catalysts that could influence September positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$281,156 Vol.
$281,156 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$281,156 Vol.
$281,156 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,494 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$51,653 Vol.
7%
No change
$80,408 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$54,957 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$44,724 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price spikes, alongside firm labor market readings with unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, these readings have shifted expectations toward a prolonged hold as officials prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Futures pricing and economist surveys align with the 73.5% implied probability of unchanged policy, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect risks from persistent price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on employment and inflation remain key near-term catalysts that could influence September positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
ভলিউম
$281,156শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price spikes, alongside firm labor market readings with unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, these readings have shifted expectations toward a prolonged hold as officials prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Futures pricing and economist surveys align with the 73.5% implied probability of unchanged policy, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect risks from persistent price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on employment and inflation remain key near-term catalysts that could influence September positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$281,156শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price spikes, alongside firm labor market readings with unemployment near 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the September FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, these readings have shifted expectations toward a prolonged hold as officials prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Futures pricing and economist surveys align with the 73.5% implied probability of unchanged policy, while modest odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect risks from persistent price pressures. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on employment and inflation remain key near-term catalysts that could influence September positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা