Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at approximately 3.3% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on having "work to do" on price stability after the July hold (9-3 vote), have reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive stance over cuts, whose probabilities remain below 4%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term data points that could shift these aggregated odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 67%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,441,746 Vol.
$1,441,746 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 67%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,441,746 Vol.
$1,441,746 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$240,480 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$549,878 Vol.
3%
No change
$228,568 Vol.
67%
25 bps increase
$271,641 Vol.
31%
50+ bps increase
$160,751 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at approximately 3.3% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on having "work to do" on price stability after the July hold (9-3 vote), have reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive stance over cuts, whose probabilities remain below 4%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term data points that could shift these aggregated odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,441,746শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at approximately 3.3% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on having "work to do" on price stability after the July hold (9-3 vote), have reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive stance over cuts, whose probabilities remain below 4%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term data points that could shift these aggregated odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$1,441,746শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at approximately 3.3% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, combined with a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including emphasis on having "work to do" on price stability after the July hold (9-3 vote), have reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive stance over cuts, whose probabilities remain below 4%. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term data points that could shift these aggregated odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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