The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on April 24, 2026, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader-implied probabilities near 2-3% for federal charges by year-end. Prosecutors cited insufficient evidence after a federal judge quashed grand jury subpoenas in March, noting the probe lacked proof of criminal conduct beyond policy disputes over interest rates and the $2.46 billion headquarters renovation project. The matter was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, whose prior 2021 review found no fraud. With Powell’s chairmanship concluded in May and Kevin Warsh now leading the FOMC amid elevated inflation data, no new catalysts have emerged to revive scrutiny. Any future IG findings could theoretically reopen review, though historical precedent and evidentiary thresholds continue to limit the odds of indictment.