Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader focus toward the risk of renewed inflationary pressures. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, markets now assign roughly 98% implied probability to no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting while pricing a gradual upward drift in the policy path to around 3.8% by year-end. Resilient labor market data, including 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance and have pushed back expectations for cuts into late 2026 or 2027. The May CPI release on June 10 and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections will provide the next key inputs into rate-hike probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$155,246 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
14%
October Meeting
28%
$155,246 Vol.
June Meeting
$16,328 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$2,000 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$3,063 Vol.
14%
October Meeting
$2,547 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader focus toward the risk of renewed inflationary pressures. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, markets now assign roughly 98% implied probability to no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting while pricing a gradual upward drift in the policy path to around 3.8% by year-end. Resilient labor market data, including 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance and have pushed back expectations for cuts into late 2026 or 2027. The May CPI release on June 10 and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections will provide the next key inputs into rate-hike probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$155,246শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader focus toward the risk of renewed inflationary pressures. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, markets now assign roughly 98% implied probability to no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting while pricing a gradual upward drift in the policy path to around 3.8% by year-end. Resilient labor market data, including 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance and have pushed back expectations for cuts into late 2026 or 2027. The May CPI release on June 10 and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections will provide the next key inputs into rate-hike probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$155,246শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023 and driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader focus toward the risk of renewed inflationary pressures. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, markets now assign roughly 98% implied probability to no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting while pricing a gradual upward drift in the policy path to around 3.8% by year-end. Resilient labor market data, including 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance and have pushed back expectations for cuts into late 2026 or 2027. The May CPI release on June 10 and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections will provide the next key inputs into rate-hike probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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