Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, driving market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60% on CME FedWatch and Polymarket. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, combined with Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, removed prior easing bias and elevated the bar for remaining on hold. Recent CPI prints showed moderation but core measures remain sticky, while the June dot plot indicated nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end. Incoming July and August data releases will serve as the key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$2,711,454 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
55%
October Meeting
66%
$2,711,454 Vol.
September Meeting
$1,177,239 Vol.
55%
October Meeting
$574,216 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, driving market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60% on CME FedWatch and Polymarket. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, combined with Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, removed prior easing bias and elevated the bar for remaining on hold. Recent CPI prints showed moderation but core measures remain sticky, while the June dot plot indicated nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end. Incoming July and August data releases will serve as the key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,711,454শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, driving market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60% on CME FedWatch and Polymarket. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, combined with Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, removed prior easing bias and elevated the bar for remaining on hold. Recent CPI prints showed moderation but core measures remain sticky, while the June dot plot indicated nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end. Incoming July and August data releases will serve as the key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$2,711,454শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have shifted trader sentiment toward tighter policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, driving market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 60% on CME FedWatch and Polymarket. The July FOMC’s 9-3 hold, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, combined with Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, removed prior easing bias and elevated the bar for remaining on hold. Recent CPI prints showed moderation but core measures remain sticky, while the June dot plot indicated nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end. Incoming July and August data releases will serve as the key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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