Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডপরিবর্তন নেই 81%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 13%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 3.9%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 2.5%
$3,681,825 Vol.
$3,681,825 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
2%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
13%
পরিবর্তন নেই
81%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
4%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
1%
পরিবর্তন নেই 81%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 13%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 3.9%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 2.5%
$3,681,825 Vol.
$3,681,825 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$165,705 Vol.
2%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$114,782 Vol.
13%
পরিবর্তন নেই
$182,962 Vol.
81%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$3,022,073 Vol.
4%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$196,303 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,681,825শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$3,681,825শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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