**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
9%
Other
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$40 Vol.
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$41 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$40 Vol.
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$25 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$25 Vol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$25 Vol.
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$25 Vol.
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$42 Vol.
9%
Other
$25 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$288শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$288শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা