Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

A Zogby Analytics poll released in early July showed JD Vance leading Democratic contenders Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups. This poll reinforced Vance's position as a frontrunner, supporting his market price stability and slight increase.

Jon Ossoff leads in Georgia Senate race with strong Fox News poll showing

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

A Fox News poll showed Jon Ossoff holding a double-digit lead in his 2026 Senate race, boosting his market price as a rising Democratic figure and potential 2028 contender.

Jon Ossoff Flatly Denies 2028 Presidential Ambitions Amid Growing Online Support

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff doubled down on his statements that he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, calling the speculation a distraction from his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.

Jon Ossoff firmly denies 2028 presidential run amid reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff jumps to 8%5%

Senator Jon Ossoff publicly stated he is not running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his Senate reelection campaign. This clear denial likely contributed to a modest price increase as markets adjusted expectations for his candidacy.

Jon Ossoff Firmly Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Despite growing online enthusiasm and comparisons to Barack Obama, Senator Jon Ossoff issued a firm statement denying any interest in a 2028 presidential run, calling the chatter a distraction from his Senate reelection campaign.

Governor Gavin Newsom signs balanced state budget for 2026-27

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Newsom signed a balanced budget for California, emphasizing fiscal strength and investments, but the event did not reverse his market price decline amid political challenges.

AOC warns rising cost of living threatens Trump’s midterms

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 7%2%

RawStory quoted AOC saying rising cost‑of‑living was a political liability for Trump. The comment highlighted her focus on economic issues and coincided with a dip in her market price from 9 % (Jun 16 2026) to 7 % (Jul 4 2026).

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Announces Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement signed by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, hailing it as a first step toward regional peace.

Governor Gavin Newsom Confirms Return-to-Office Order is Final Despite Union Protests

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Governor Gavin Newsom insisted that his controversial return-to-office order for California state workers would take effect on July 1, drawing heavy criticism from labor unions and contributing to a decline in his national appeal.

Marco Rubio Announces Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement as Step Toward Peace

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement signed by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, boosting his foreign policy credentials.

Gavin Newsom calls for national billionaires tax amid state-level battles

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

Newsom proposed a national wealth tax and AI equity fund, positioning himself as a progressive leader but also facing criticism, which influenced his market price downward.

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

An anonymous caller falsely reported that Pete Buttigieg's children were in danger, leading to their temporary removal and a police investigation. The report was quickly determined to be false, but the incident caused personal distress and negative publicity, reflected in a drop in Buttigieg's market price.

Pete Buttigieg briefly separated from children after false police report

Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after a false police report, a personal scandal that pushed his market price from 2 % on Jun 22 2026 to 2 % on Jun 27 2026, confirming a continued downward trend from a high of 9 % in mid‑2025.

Marco Rubio Brokers Historic Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement

Marco Rubio rises to 16%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting his foreign policy credentials.

Jon Ossoff announces $37 million infrastructure funding for Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff secured significant federal funding for infrastructure projects in Georgia, enhancing his political standing and campaign momentum ahead of his re-election and potential presidential ambitions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says no Ukraine‑Russia deal reached at Alaska summit

Marco Rubio rises to 16%4%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Russia and the United States had not reached an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, reinforcing his high‑profile diplomatic role and lifting his market price from 12 % to 16 % by early July.

Marco Rubio warns Gulf allies about Iranian tolls on Strait of Hormuz

During the conclusion of his Gulf tour, Rubio warned that Iranian tolls on the Strait of Hormuz could spread regionally, reinforcing his strong stance on security and contributing to sustained market confidence.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces AI Data Center Moratorium Act

Ocasio-Cortez introduced legislation to temporarily halt new AI data center construction, positioning herself as a progressive leader on technology and environmental issues, affecting her market standing.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez introduces AI Data Center Moratorium Act

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

AOC introduced the AI Data Center Moratorium Act in the House, a high‑profile legislative move that coincided with a modest decline in her market price from 9 % on Jun 9 2026 to 5 % on Jun 27 2026.

Tucker Carlson quits the GOP, says he’s “out”

Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%

Carlson announced on a podcast that he was quitting the Republican Party and would no longer support GOP candidates. The announcement was widely covered and triggered a dramatic collapse of his market price from 50 % to 2 % over the next week.

Vance leads U.S.–Iran talks, secures inspector access

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice‑President JD Vance led high‑level talks with Iran in Switzerland, announcing that Iran would allow nuclear inspectors to return. The breakthrough raised Vance’s profile as a possible 2028 contender and coincided with a jump in his market price from 15 % to 21 % the next day.

Vice President JD Vance Announces Major Progress in Switzerland Peace Talks with Iran

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance led direct negotiations with Iran in Switzerland, securing an agreement to allow international nuclear inspections to resume, which elevated his standing as a diplomatic dealmaker.

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice President Vance announced that Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country after a “very, very good” round of talks in Switzerland. The breakthrough boosted Vance’s perceived competence on foreign policy and pushed his market price up from 15 % to 21 % by early July.

Marco Rubio begins Middle East diplomatic tour addressing Iran and Gulf security

Marco Rubio jumps to 17%8%

Marco Rubio's diplomatic visits to UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss Iran and the Strait of Hormuz raised his profile and market price from 9% to a peak of 17% in early June, reflecting increased confidence in his foreign policy credentials.

Marco Rubio embarks on Middle East diplomatic mission amid Iran tensions

Marco Rubio rises to 16%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss regional security and Iran-related issues, raising his profile and positively influencing his market price as a key foreign policy figure.

Marco Rubio dispatched to Middle East to seek Gulf support amid Iran talks

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to rally Gulf Cooperation Council support for a tentative Iran agreement, boosting his profile and market price.

JD Vance leads US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland amid high stakes

JD Vance rises to 19%4%

JD Vance's role in leading sensitive peace negotiations with Iran placed him in a critical foreign policy spotlight, influencing market perceptions of his leadership and presidential prospects.

Marco Rubio visits Middle East to address Iran memorandum of understanding

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Rubio's diplomatic visit to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss Iran and Hormuz priorities underscored his foreign policy leadership, impacting his presidential market standing.

Georgia Conservative Radio Host Shelley Wynter Endorses Jon Ossoff for Reelection

Prominent conservative radio host Shelley Wynter endorsed Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, boosting Ossoff's cross-party appeal in a highly competitive swing state.

Media highlights Jon Ossoff's potential contingent on 2026 Senate race success

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Media analysis emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on winning his 2026 Senate race, supporting his market price rise to 6%.

Jon Ossoff gains attention as potential 2028 Democratic contender despite denials

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies and growing popularity in Georgia increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in a modest rise in his market price despite his public disinterest.

Investigation into Gavin Newsom raises concerns over 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%1%

An ongoing probe into California Governor Gavin Newsom's administration raised questions about his presidential ambitions, contributing to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 16%.

Joy Behar encourages JD Vance to run for president during The View interview

JD Vance rises to 21%4%

Joy Behar publicly urged JD Vance to run for president following their interview, which positively influenced market sentiment and contributed to a price rise to 21% by June 22.

Jon Ossoff solidifies front-runner status amid Republican primary runoff in Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

As Republicans faced a fractured primary runoff, Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising and campaign infrastructure positioned him as a front-runner for reelection and boosted his 2028 presidential viability, reflected in a price increase.

Joy Behar Reveals She Encouraged JD Vance to Run for President in 2028

JD Vance rises to 20%3%

Following an animated interview on 'The View', liberal host Joy Behar revealed she encouraged Vice President JD Vance to make a 2028 White House run, boosting his media profile and market price.

Jon Ossoff gains attention as potential 2028 presidential contender amid Senate re-election campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%

Despite focusing on his 2026 Senate re-election in Georgia, Jon Ossoff was increasingly mentioned as a possible 2028 presidential candidate, boosting his profile and market perception.

Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Trump-endorsed Representative Mike Collins won the Republican primary runoff, setting up a highly anticipated general election matchup with Jon Ossoff, who is viewed as a key 2028 Democratic prospect.

Trump-Endorsed Mike Collins Wins Georgia Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff in November

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Georgia Republicans selected Representative Mike Collins to challenge incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff in a critical midterm race seen as a key test for Ossoff's potential 2028 presidential viability.

JD Vance Appears on 'The View' to Promote Memoir Amid FCC Equal Time Scrutiny

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance made a highly rated debut appearance on ABC's 'The View' to promote his book 'Communion', drawing 3.3 million viewers and addressing tense policy questions.

JD Vance appears on ABC's 'The View' to discuss new book and administration goals

JD Vance rises to 16%1%

JD Vance's first appearance on the popular daytime talk show 'The View' to discuss his new book and political agenda increased his visibility and engagement with a broader audience, impacting his market price positively.

Jon Ossoff's campaign surges with strong fundraising after GOP nominee emerges

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Following the Republican primary win of Mike Collins in Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign raised over $1 million in 24 hours, signaling strong support and boosting his market price as he prepared for a tough reelection battle.

Gavin Newsom reveals DOJ investigation into him and his wife amid 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

Governor Newsom announced that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which contributed to a decline in his market price due to increased political uncertainty.

Gavin Newsom Announces He and His Wife Are Under Federal Investigation

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, which he claimed was a politically motivated attack on his 2028 ambitions.

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Governor Newsom launched a last‑ditch campaign to sink a proposed California billionaire tax before the June 25 deadline. The move was viewed as a sign of his willingness to fight powerful interests, but the market saw his presidential odds slip from 18 % to 16 % on June 12 and down to 15 % by June 26.

Death‑hoax about Pete Buttigieg confirmed false

The Daily Caller debunked a bogus death hoax about Buttigieg that circulated in June 2026, reinforcing his low market probability (2 % on Jul 4 2026). The hoax’s resolution caused a brief dip but the price remained near its endpoint.

Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation amid political tensions with Trump

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom revealed that he and his wife were under investigation by the Justice Department, which he attributed to political targeting by President Trump. This development negatively affected his market price amid concerns over his political future.

Gavin Newsom Accuses Justice Department of Politically Motivated Investigation

Gavin Newsom rises to 16%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under federal investigation, claiming the Trump administration is targeting him because he is considering a 2028 presidential run.

Gavin Newsom Reveals He and His Wife Are Under DOJ Investigation

Gavin Newsom rises to 16%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, claiming the probe is a politically motivated attack by President Trump to damage his potential 2028 presidential run.

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom revealed he and his wife are under federal investigation, which negatively impacted his market price as it raised concerns about his presidential prospects.

JD Vance signals decision on 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms

JD Vance stated in an interview that he and his wife would discuss a 2028 presidential run after the midterm elections, fueling speculation and affecting his market price positively.

JD Vance announces plan to discuss 2028 run after midterm elections

JD Vance rises to 20%4%

Vice President JD Vance stated he will discuss a 2028 presidential run with his wife after the 2026 midterms, signaling a delay in decision-making but maintaining candidacy speculation. This contributed to a rebound in his market price to 20%.

JD Vance Says He Will Discuss 2028 Presidential Run After Midterm Elections

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance stated in a CBS Sunday Morning interview that he and his wife will discuss whether he should seek the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after the 2026 midterms.

Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom share suite at World Cup amid 2028 speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Marco Rubio's attendance at the World Cup and meeting with Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom, highlighted their rising profiles and ongoing 2028 presidential speculation.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains undecided on 2028 presidential run

Ocasio-Cortez publicly stated she is undecided about running for president in 2028, maintaining her political flexibility but limiting market enthusiasm.

JD Vance to appear on 'The View' amid FCC drama and White House criticism

Vice President JD Vance announced a high-profile interview on the liberal talk show 'The View,' a surprising move amid ongoing FCC investigations and criticism of the show's hosts. This media event caused a brief uptick in his market price.

JD Vance discusses faith and personal challenges in interview

JD Vance's interview revealing his personal struggles and faith provided insight into his character, influencing public perception and market price modestly.

JD Vance breaks silence on 2028 plans, to decide after midterms

JD Vance rises to 16%1%

In a CBS interview, JD Vance stated he would discuss a potential 2028 presidential campaign with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, showing cautious consideration and maintaining his market position.

Jon Ossoff gains traction as 2028 Democratic contender amid strong Senate campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Prediction markets warmed to Jon Ossoff for 2028, lifting his price from 4% to 6% as his Senate reelection campaign gained momentum and he increased his national profile.

Prediction markets price Jon Ossoff as rising 2028 contender despite denials

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%3%

Despite Jon Ossoff's public denials of a 2028 presidential run, prediction markets increased his price from 3% to 6% as his 2026 Senate campaign gained momentum and national profile.

JD Vance announces upcoming memoir focusing on faith

Vance's announcement of a new memoir about his faith aimed to broaden his appeal and reshape his public image, potentially affecting his market price.

Jon Ossoff Viral Speeches Spark 2028 Presidential Buzz

Senator Jon Ossoff's re-election campaign kickoff speech went viral online, leading to widespread speculation and prediction market activity positioning him as a strong 2028 Democratic contender.

JD Vance criticized for comments on UK teen murder and immigration

JD Vance drops to 23%5%

JD Vance faced criticism from UK officials for comments linking immigration to a teen's murder, impacting his public image and contributing to a decline in his market price.

Marco Rubio defends US foreign policy amid Iran talks and military actions

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly defended the administration's Iran policy and military actions, raising his profile and contributing to a rise in his market price.

Marco Rubio testifies on Capitol Hill optimistic about Iran nuclear talks

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate expressing optimism about resuming nuclear talks with Iran despite ongoing conflict. His active diplomatic role and public visibility contributed to an increase in his market price.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Testifies Before Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Marco Rubio testified in back-to-back high-profile congressional hearings regarding the State Department budget and the administration's strategy on the Iran conflict, boosting his national profile.

Marco Rubio Testifies Before Congress on Iran War and Budget Cuts

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, defending the administration's foreign policy and budget requests, which further elevated his national profile.

House passes Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act sponsored by AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

The House passed the Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act, a bipartisan bill sponsored by Ocasio‑Cortez, raising her market price from 9 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑06 as the bill attracted criticism from conservative media.

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

The California top-two primary election was held, with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom was ineligible for re-election due to term limits, which contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 14%.

Marco Rubio testifies on Iran war and US foreign policy

Marco Rubio rises to 15%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the administration's Iran policy and military actions, raising his profile and market price from 13% to 15%.

Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran sanctions, signals tough U.S. stance

Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iran‑related sanctions, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The appearance lifted his odds, moving the market price from 10 % on 2026‑05‑19 to 14 % on 2026‑06‑04.

California holds primary for governor, shaping Newsom's political future

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

The California gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, created uncertainty around Gavin Newsom's political future, contributing to a decline in his market price as the race to succeed him intensified.

Ossoff starts 2026 with $25 million cash on hand

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%3%

NBC reported that Ossoff began 2026 with a $25 million cash war‑chest, a boost that lifted his market price from 4 % (Jun 16 2026) to 7 % (Jul 4 2026).

Jon Ossoff Delivers Fiery Anti-Corruption Speech at Atlanta Campaign Rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful, viral speech in Atlanta criticizing Donald Trump, which significantly boosted his national profile and fueled 2028 speculation.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Viral Campaign Speech in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff jumps to 9%5%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful 30-minute campaign speech at a rally in Atlanta that went viral on social media, drawing comparisons to Barack Obama and fueling intense speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Vice President JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

Vance's role as commencement speaker showcased his leadership and public presence, positively influencing his market perception as a presidential hopeful.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez undertakes national tour and fundraising efforts

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez conducted a national tour and reported significant fundraising, maintaining her market presence though with limited price gains, ending near 6%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rallies support for Democratic candidates on national tour

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actively campaigned for Democratic candidates during a national tour, signaling her growing influence and potential 2028 presidential ambitions, though her market price declined slightly.

Fox News calls AOC a 'chaos candidate' for 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

A Fox News segment discussed AOC’s nationwide tour and the pundit label of her as a potential “chaos candidate” for 2028, causing her market price to dip from 9 % to 5 % as investors reassessed her electability.

Rubio beats Vance in head‑to‑head poll, market odds jump

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

A new head‑to‑head poll released May 28 showed Rubio ahead of JD Vance (42 % vs. 36 %). The surprise surge lifted Rubio’s market price from 11 % to 14 % the following day and later to a peak of 17 % on June 6.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embarks on national tour fueling 2028 presidential speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%

Ocasio-Cortez's national tour and increased media presence fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, though her market price remained low, reflecting mixed market confidence.

JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy

JD Vance's keynote speech at the Air Force Academy highlighted his leadership and military engagement, reinforcing his stature and maintaining his market price around 18-19%.

Marco Rubio visits India to repair and strengthen diplomatic ties

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's high-profile visit to India, including meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and cultural engagements, aimed to stabilize US-India relations, boosting his market standing amid foreign policy focus.

Vice President JD Vance expands national security team amid foreign conflicts

JD Vance bolstered his foreign policy operation during ongoing international conflicts, enhancing his profile as Vice President and influencing his market price slightly downward amid political challenges.

Marco Rubio meets Indian officials to strengthen U.S.-India relations

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

Marco Rubio's visit to India included meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and discussions on trade and bilateral ties. Although no major deals were signed, the visit was seen as a diplomatic effort to repair relations, positively impacting Rubio's market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 8%2%

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increased her national profile by campaigning for other candidates and signaling potential presidential ambitions, which contributed to a gradual increase in her market price during this period.

Marco Rubio announces significant progress toward Iran nuclear deal

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the U.S. made significant progress toward an interim deal with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear material disposal. This diplomatic development enhanced Rubio's stature and market price as a serious presidential contender.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Takes New Steps Toward Potential 2028 White House Bid

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Montana to campaign for a congressional candidate and attended meetings with Democratic Party powerbrokers, signaling active preparation for a potential 2028 run.

Marco Rubio visits India to strengthen US-India relations and attends Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's diplomatic visit to India and participation in the Quad meeting underscored his foreign policy leadership, boosting his market price from 11% to 14% as he gained prominence as a 2028 presidential contender.

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Analysis highlighted the intensifying contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump, with Vance maintaining a lead but Rubio gaining ground through diplomatic and policy roles. This dynamic was reflected in market price movements favoring Rubio and some volatility for Vance.

Federal arrest in $23 million homeless services fraud in Los Angeles draws criticism of Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%2%

Federal authorities arrested a suspect in a $23 million homeless services fraud scheme in Los Angeles, leading to sharp criticism of Governor Gavin Newsom for oversight failures. This scandal negatively impacted Newsom's market price.

JD Vance faces political isolation and considers abandoning 2028 run

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports on May 23, 2026, indicated Vice President JD Vance was increasingly isolated after Tulsi Gabbard's exit and was contemplating dropping out of the 2028 presidential race, pressuring his market price downward to 18%.

AOC says she may consider a White House bid in 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

A Hill interview where AOC said she was keeping her options open for a 2028 run caused a modest dip in her market price from 9 % to 5 % by the end of May as investors reassessed her candidacy.

Jon Ossoff's message resonates with GOP voters amid 2028 speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's speeches criticizing the wealthy elite and corruption have gained traction even among GOP voters, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Kamala Harris purchases Malibu mansion, signaling personal and political shift

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris quietly bought an $8.15 million mansion in Malibu, indicating a significant personal life change that market participants interpreted as a sign of her preparing for a future political campaign, supporting a price rise.

Kamala Harris considers 2028 presidential bid amid mixed support

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is thinking about a 2028 presidential run, which contributed to a price increase from 3% to 5%, despite some former allies expressing preference for fresh faces.

JD Vance announces fourth child on social media

JD Vance dips to 19%2%

JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may positively influence public perception and market confidence in his candidacy.

JD Vance denies running for president in 2028 despite speculation

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president in 2028, countering market speculation and possibly contributing to a slight decline or stabilization in his market price as uncertainty about his candidacy persisted.

Thomas Massie gains slight market support

Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%

Thomas Massie’s price rose modestly from 1% to 3% in early 2026, possibly due to increased political activity or media mentions.

JD Vance denies plans to run for 2028 presidential election

Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, clarifying his focus on vice presidential duties.

Vice President JD Vance cancels Denver event amid political speculation

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

JD Vance canceled a scheduled Denver visit without explanation, fueling speculation about his presidential ambitions and causing a decline in his market price from 19% to 15%.

JD Vance announced as commencement speaker at 2026 USAFA graduation

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

JD Vance was named the commencement speaker for the U.S. Air Force Academy's 2026 graduation, raising his national profile and briefly boosting his market price.

JD Vance denies running for president in 2028

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Vice President JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, causing a decline in his market price as uncertainty increased.

JD Vance briefs media and hosts fraud task force meeting at White House

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's active role in leading a fraud task force and hosting state attorneys general at the White House increased his visibility and credibility, causing his market price to rise from 19% to 22% around early May before stabilizing.

Vance Briefs Members of the Media on Foreign Policy and National Security

Vance's media briefing highlighted his expanding foreign policy role, reinforcing his credentials for a national leadership position.

Jon Ossoff intensifies 2026 Senate campaign in Georgia, raising significant funds

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign for re-election gained momentum with strong fundraising and increased visibility, leading to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Pete Buttigieg endorses Montana ballot measure limiting corporate money in elections

Buttigieg's public endorsement of a Montana ballot measure demonstrated his active political involvement and appeal to progressive voters, influencing his presidential prospects.

Marco Rubio publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

Marco Rubio stated in an NBC News interview that he would be the first to support Vice President JD Vance if Vance runs for president in 2028, signaling party unity and boosting Rubio's profile. This endorsement coincided with Rubio's odds rising in the market.

Josh Shapiro’s campaign stalls after New Jersey primary loss

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro’s unexpected primary defeat reduced his perceived viability, causing his price to fall from 7% to 3% as the market reassessed his chances.

Pete Buttigieg Leads Hypothetical 2028 Democratic Presidential Field in New Poll

An Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading a crowded field of potential 2028 Democratic candidates with 18% support, boosting his standing in the market.

New Poll Shows Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leading 2028 Primary Fields

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading their respective potential 2028 primary fields, boosting their market profiles.

Marco Rubio visits China despite sanctions, marking diplomatic breakthrough

Marco Rubio rises to 13%1%

Rubio's visit to Beijing despite Chinese sanctions was seen as a diplomatic success, boosting his stature and market price as a leading Republican contender.

Poll shows Marco Rubio leading JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

A national poll revealed Marco Rubio surging ahead of JD Vance as the preferred Republican candidate for 2028, reflecting shifting party support and boosting Rubio's market price while pressuring Vance's position.

Ron DeSantis price increases following special session announcement

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Ron DeSantis's move to call a special legislative session to address redistricting and other policy issues increased his visibility and political influence.

Ron DeSantis gains momentum after policy speech on immigration enforcement

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Ron DeSantis delivered a high‑profile speech outlining a new immigration enforcement plan, which resonated with his base and lifted his market price from 2% to 4% over the following days.

JD Vance adds Trump ally Cliff Sims as national security adviser

JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a close ally of Donald Trump, signaling a strengthening of his foreign policy credentials. This move likely supported his campaign positioning and contributed to market confidence.

AOC and Marco Rubio Lead New 2028 Presidential Primary Poll

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the potential 2028 Democratic field, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a commanding lead on the Republican side.

JD Vance appoints Cliff Sims as national security adviser amid global crises

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a Trump ally, signaling strengthened foreign policy credentials and boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.

Marco Rubio's increased activity fuels speculation of 2028 run

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Marco Rubio's political activities and public statements in early 2026 increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in rising market prices.

Kamala Harris receives Democratic endorsements and boosts for 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

In May 2026, Kamala Harris gained endorsements and support from Democratic leaders and the DNC, which helped increase her visibility and market price as a potential 2028 candidate.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul

JD Vance's public appearance at the Winter Olympics alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his visibility and connected him with younger audiences, maintaining his market presence.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum after Georgia Senate race win

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Ossoff’s victory in the Georgia Senate race boosted his national profile, raising his market price from 3% to 4% as he emerged as a rising Democratic star.

Democratic National Committee boosts Kamala Harris for 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%

The DNC's support for Kamala Harris, including staff shifts to her campaign, increased her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, positively affecting her market price.

Kamala Harris signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 6%3%

Kamala Harris publicly confirmed she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, raising her profile and market price from 3% to 6% during April and May.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises in Democratic primary polls, sparking speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%

A poll placed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez atop the Democratic primary field for the first time, increasing her visibility though her market price slightly declined overall during the period.

Marco Rubio says he will not enter 2028 race if JD Vance runs

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Rubio stated he would not enter the 2028 presidential race if JD Vance were to run, reinforcing the idea that Vance is the likely Republican nominee. This reduced speculation about Rubio as a 2028 candidate.

AOC says she’s still weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

AOC told The Guardian she was not ruling out a 2028 presidential run, but the interview generated mixed reactions and an apparent dip in enthusiasm among moderate voters, causing her market price to fall from 9 % on 2025‑08‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑04.

Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran war before Senate panel

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Iran conflict, drawing media attention and raising his market price from 11 % to 14 % that week.

JD Vance travels to Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn ahead of 2028 primary

Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn was seen as laying groundwork for a presidential run, fueling speculation that he was actively preparing for the 2028 nomination.

JD Vance sees price increase following high-profile March for Life speech

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

JD Vance's continued advocacy for pro-family policies and his high-profile role at the March for Life event bolstered his standing among conservative voters.

Marco Rubio Surges in 2028 Successor Polls and White House Briefings

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent role in foreign policy and a series of strong poll numbers, including an AtlasIntel poll showing him leading JD Vance, drove a sharp increase in his market price.

Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV amid rising 2028 speculation

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican, a high-profile diplomatic engagement that fueled speculation about his 2028 presidential run, coinciding with a price rise from 9% to 15%.

Marco Rubio gains support with positive White House press briefing

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's role filling in at the White House press briefing and his positive remarks in early May 2026 enhanced his public profile and contributed to a market price increase.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Meets Pope Leo XIV to Discuss Iran War

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Pope Leo XIV to discuss disagreements over the Iran war, highlighting his prominent foreign policy role and boosting his profile as a key 2028 contender.

Marco Rubio becomes surprise front-runner in 2028 presidential betting market

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Marco Rubio's increased involvement in foreign policy and national security, including high-profile diplomatic efforts, boosted his standing in prediction markets, causing his price to rise and briefly overtake JD Vance.

Josh Shapiro begins 2026 re-election campaign with strong fundraising

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro announced his 2026 re-election campaign with over $30 million in the bank, positioning himself as a strong potential 2028 presidential contender, though his market price slightly declined.

Marco Rubio releases campaign-style video fueling 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a hopeful vision video that went viral, increasing speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and raising his market price.

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris held a public event in Las Vegas where she criticized Donald Trump for the ongoing war in Iran, reinforcing her active political presence and positioning herself as a vocal critic of Trump-era policies. This likely boosted her market price by increasing her visibility and appeal to Democratic voters.

Lin-Manuel Miranda hosts virtual fundraiser for Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

A high-profile virtual fundraising event hosted by Lin-Manuel Miranda boosted Jon Ossoff's visibility and fundraising efforts, contributing to a positive market response.

Ron DeSantis leaves office in 2027, leaves door open for 2028 run

Ron DeSantis rises to 3%1%

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced he will leave office in January 2027 due to term limits but did not rule out a future presidential run in 2028, keeping his candidacy possibility alive despite low market support.

Marco Rubio’s price rises amid Winter Olympics and speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio’s price increased from 11% to 15% in early May, likely influenced by his role in the US delegation to the Winter Olympics alongside JD Vance and growing speculation about his presidential ambitions.

Marco Rubio gains recognition as a leading Republican contender

Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%

Marco Rubio's price rose notably in early May, reflecting increased market confidence in his potential as a Republican candidate. Public and party strategist comments positioned Rubio as a strong contender, boosting his market standing.

Marco Rubio Releases Viral Campaign-Style Video Sparking 2028 Speculation

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a polished, campaign-style video outlining his optimistic vision for America, which was widely interpreted by commentators as a potential pitch for a 2028 presidential run.

Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

The announcement of Usha Vance's pregnancy was positively received, humanizing JD Vance and possibly contributing to a slight increase in his market price due to favorable public sentiment.

Vice President JD Vance makes Iowa debut campaigning for GOP House member Zach Nunn

Vance's first campaign stop in Iowa signaled serious intent for a 2028 presidential run, boosting his profile in a critical Republican state.

Marco Rubio Fills In at White House Press Briefing, Sparking 2028 Buzz

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in for Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, delivering a hopeful vision for America that went viral and fueled speculation about his presidential prospects.

JD Vance Makes First Vice Presidential Trip to Iowa to Boost Midterm Candidates

JD Vance dips to 20%2%

Vice President JD Vance made his first trip to the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa, a move widely interpreted as laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential run.

Vance travels to Iowa to support Zach Nunn, fueling 2028 presidential run speculation

Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa signaled he was laying groundwork for a presidential run, boosting his visibility among key voters.

JD Vance campaigns in Iowa, boosting Republican support

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

Vice President JD Vance visited Iowa to support a vulnerable Republican congressman, energizing the GOP base and sparking speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, which led to a price increase from 19% to 22%.

Marco Rubio's White House briefing video sparks 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared a campaign-style video from a White House briefing that went viral, increasing speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and boosting his market position.

Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Kamala Harris publicly endorsed Karen Bass for LA mayor, signaling her continued political influence and potential presidential ambitions, which contributed to a rise in her market price.

Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV, fuels 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

A Fox News video of Rubio’s brief meeting with Pope Leo XIV, aired on May 5, generated a viral clip that revived his 2028 speculation, lifting his price from 12 % on March 27 to 14 % on May 30.

Marco Rubio's public briefing and diplomatic activities fuel 2028 presidential speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a White House briefing and increased his public profile through diplomatic engagements, including a Vatican visit. This boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential run, raising his market price from 11% to 15% in early May.

JD Vance warmly received in Iowa amid 2028 presidential speculation

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

Vice President JD Vance's visit to Iowa was met with optimism from Republicans curious about his potential as a 2028 presidential contender, briefly boosting his market price.

Marco Rubio Briefs White House Press, Sparking Viral 2028 Speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in at the White House press briefing, delivering an eloquent and optimistic vision that went viral on social media and fueled intense speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefs media on US foreign policy

Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%

Marco Rubio's media briefing on US foreign policy reinforced his role as a key diplomat and potential presidential candidate, influencing market perceptions positively.

Vice President JD Vance campaigns in Iowa, boosting Republican prospects

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance made a significant campaign appearance in Iowa, taking shots at Democrats and energizing Republican supporters, which likely contributed to a price increase from 19% to 22% around early May.

Marco Rubio briefs media as Secretary of State, signaling rising profile

Marco Rubio rises to 12%1%

Marco Rubio held a press briefing as Secretary of State, reinforcing his visibility and influence in foreign policy, contributing to a gradual increase in his market price during May.

Marco Rubio sparks 2028 presidential buzz with White House briefing

Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's optimistic vision for America during a White House briefing generated speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price significantly.

Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Kamala Harris publicly endorsed incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection, signaling her political influence in California and possibly shaping local political dynamics ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

Marco Rubio plans Vatican visit amid rising tensions between Trump and Pope

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a visit to the Vatican to discuss issues including the Iran war, signaling his growing diplomatic profile and influence. This contributed to a rise in Rubio's market price as he gained stature as a potential presidential contender.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Refuses to Rule Out 2028 Presidential Run

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declined to rule out a potential second run for the presidency in 2028, delivering what appeared to be a campaign pitch when asked about his post-governorship plans.

Marco Rubio to meet Pope Leo amid tensions with Trump

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's scheduled meeting with Pope Leo in early May 2026, following Trump's public criticism of the pontiff, highlighted Rubio's diplomatic role and helped boost his market standing as a presidential contender.

Kamala Harris declines to run for California governor, fueling 2028 speculation

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor, a decision that disappointed some Democrats and fueled speculation about her 2028 presidential ambitions, impacting her market price.

Kamala Harris decides not to run for California governor, fueling 2028 speculation

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, which some interpreted as a move to prepare for a 2028 presidential bid, modestly increasing her market price.

JD Vance leads early 2028 Republican primary polls

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

A national poll showed Vice President JD Vance leading the 2028 Republican primary field with 37% support, temporarily boosting his market price.

Ron DeSantis’ poll numbers dip after Florida tax controversy

Ron DeSantis dips to 4%4%

A controversy over new Florida tax legislation hurt DeSantis’s standing, dropping his price from 8% to 4% as voters expressed concern over economic policy.

Marco Rubio’s campaign-style video sparks 2028 presidential run speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio released a campaign-style video that went viral on social media, sparking speculation about his 2028 presidential run. The positive public reaction and endorsements from influencers helped boost his market price from 11% to 15%.

Marco Rubio’s market price rises amid increased political activity

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 11% to 14%, likely reflecting growing political engagement and endorsements, including his support for JD Vance’s potential presidential bid.

Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass for LA mayor demonstrated her ongoing political influence and engagement, supporting a modest increase in her market price.

JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a US women's hockey game during the Winter Olympics drew media attention, reinforcing his public profile and appeal. This event coincided with a price increase for Vance from 19% to 22%.

Marco Rubio testifies before Senate on Iran policy and foreign affairs budget

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, defending the Trump administration's Iran policy and budget requests. This high-profile appearance increased Rubio's visibility and market price.

U.S. delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio to attend 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%

The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead an American delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics, boosting Rubio’s visibility ahead of the market’s rise in early May.

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child is on the way

JD Vance rises to 22%4%

The Vances publicly shared that they are expecting a fourth child, a personal milestone that generated positive media coverage and reinforced JD Vance’s family‑focused image, pushing his market price sharply higher.

Kamala Harris price increases

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Kamala Harris's market price saw a slight increase, potentially reflecting renewed interest or developments in her political standing as the 2028 cycle approaches.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with family and Jake Paul

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's attendance at U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics, alongside his family and influencer Jake Paul, increased his public profile and engagement with popular culture, contributing to a brief price increase in his market odds.

Josh Shapiro proposes new system to rein in utility corporate profits

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro's active policy engagement on utility rates and corporate profits highlighted his governance credentials, supporting his market position as a potential 2028 candidate.

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Reports emerged that major Democratic donors and party leaders showed limited enthusiasm for backing Kamala Harris in 2028, reflecting skepticism about her appeal to swing voters. This news likely contributed to a modest increase in her market price as it highlighted her ongoing relevance in the race despite challenges.

Marco Rubio's State Department adopts explicitly Christian messaging

Marco Rubio rises to 12%2%

Reports on April 29, 2026, highlighted Rubio's rebranding of the State Department with Christian symbolism and messaging, signaling a shift in his political identity that may appeal to conservative voters, supporting his market rise to 12%.

JD Vance leads US delegation in tough Iran war negotiations

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

Vice President JD Vance took a prominent role leading US talks with Iran in Islamabad, a challenging diplomatic effort given his previous opposition to the war. This high-profile role briefly boosted his visibility and market price, reflecting increased perceived leadership capability.

Marco Rubio's profile soars to 35% in CPAC straw poll amid Iran and Venezuela operations

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Rubio's increased visibility from military operations and foreign policy roles boosted his polling position and market interest.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains media attention after Fox News interview

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio's public visibility increased following a Fox News interview where he discussed security issues, contributing to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 candidate.

Marco Rubio defends US policy amid Iran war and gains political profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio actively defended US actions in the Iran conflict and appeared in high-profile hearings, boosting his political stature and market price from 11% to 16%.

JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as part of the U.S. delegation, increasing their public visibility and positively impacting their market prices, especially Rubio's which rose from 9% to 14%.

Harvard/Harris Poll Shows Kamala Harris Leading 2028 Democratic Field

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

A major Harvard/Harris poll conducted in late April showed former Vice President Kamala Harris with a commanding 50% support among Democrats, while Gavin Newsom followed at 22% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stood at 8%.

Harris hints at 2028 run at Arkansas Advocate dinner

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Harris publicly outlined her 2028 ambitions at a Nevada‑style fundraiser, signaling a renewed national profile. The announcement nudged her market price up from 3 % to 4 % by early May.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

The White House announced that Vance and Rubio will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Milan‑Cortina Winter Games, raising Rubio’s national profile and suggesting strong administration backing, which nudged his market price upward.

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run during National Action Network Conference

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris expressed that she is "thinking about" a 2028 presidential run, which caused a slight increase in her market price amid ongoing speculation.

Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in 2026 midterm elections

Governor Josh Shapiro actively campaigned to help Democrats gain control of the Pennsylvania state legislature, aiming to strengthen his credentials for a possible 2028 presidential bid.

Kamala Harris Delivers Keynote Speech in Arkansas Criticizing Economic Policies

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

In her first major keynote address since her 2024 loss, Kamala Harris targeted the economic legacies of both major parties, outlining a vision for an 'American revival' and solidifying her 2028 prospects.

JD Vance attends White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

JD Vance was present during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting at the Washington Hilton hotel, which may have affected public perception of his safety and preparedness.

Marco Rubio gains recognition as serious 2028 contender among Trump insiders

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Reports emerged that President Trump's close confidantes increasingly view Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong 2028 contender due to his adept handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy. Rubio's market odds rose from 11% to 15% during this period.

White House insiders increasingly view Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Reports emerged that White House insiders see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, praising his handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy. This positive coverage contributed to a price increase from 11% to 15% in early May.

Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance revealed they are expecting a son due in July, a personal announcement that briefly lowered Vance's odds as attention shifted to family matters before stabilizing.

Marco Rubio travels to Vatican amid rising Trump-pope tensions

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Rome and Vatican City to ease tensions between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV, increasing his visibility and market confidence, pushing his price from 11% to 15%.

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing support in key early primary states. This endorsement boosted Vance's perceived viability as a candidate, reflected in a price increase from 19% to 22% around May 1.

JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump appear together at White House event

JD Vance and Marco Rubio appeared with President Trump at a White House event, highlighting their prominence in the administration and sparking speculation about their 2028 ambitions, influencing their market prices.

Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports emerged that President Donald Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement into 2028, comparing him unfavorably to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This caused a temporary dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio as Trump’s influence is critical in Republican primaries.

JD Vance participates in high-profile Oval Office meeting with Trump and Rubio

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance's involvement in a significant Oval Office meeting alongside President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio raised his political profile, contributing to his market price stability and brief increase.

Marco Rubio visits Vatican to ease tensions between Trump and Pope Leo XIV

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Rome and Vatican City to address rising tensions between President Trump and Pope Leo XIV, particularly over U.S. policies like the Iran war. This diplomatic effort boosted Rubio's profile and market support.

Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, boosting market confidence in both candidates. This endorsement speculation caused price increases for Rubio and helped stabilize Vance's position.

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vance and his wife announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The announcement generated a surge of positive coverage about the Vice President's family, pushing JD Vance’s odds up from 20 % to 28 % by early August 2025 and keeping the market above the 20 % floor for the rest of the analysis window.

Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child, boosting JD Vance’s public profile

The pregnancy announcement highlighted the vice president’s family life and pro‑family stance, leading to a modest uptick in JD Vance’s market price as voters perceived increased personal appeal.

President Trump privately questions JD Vance's 2028 presidential prospects

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports emerged that President Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to carry the MAGA movement into 2028, favoring Marco Rubio instead. This caused a dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio.

Marco Rubio gains prominence as Secretary of State amid Iran crisis

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

Marco Rubio's role in national security and diplomacy, especially regarding Iran, increased his visibility and support within the Republican Party, reflected in a rising market price.

Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

On April 23, 2026, Rubio was prominently featured with President Trump in the Oval Office and engaged in diplomatic efforts including Iran negotiations, raising his profile and market odds from 9% to 11% shortly after. His role as a key national security figure increased investor confidence in his candidacy.

Trump reportedly questions JD Vance's viability as MAGA successor

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

A New York Times report on April 23, 2026, revealed President Trump privately doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement, causing Vance's market price to dip from 19% to 18% and Rubio's to rise, reflecting shifting support within the Republican base.

Appeals court blocks Gavin Newsom's anti-ICE mask law, marking a legal defeat

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%4%

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals blocked a California law signed by Newsom requiring federal agents to unmask, citing constitutional issues. This legal setback contributed to a decline in Newsom's market price from 18% to 14%.

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child

JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may have positively influenced perceptions of Vance’s family values and electability, supporting his steady market price around 19%.

CNN data chief criticizes JD Vance's popularity, noting 21-point approval swing to -18 points

JD Vance rises to 21%3%

CNN analyst Enten reported Vance's net approval rating dropped sharply to -18 points, creating negative sentiment that may have impacted market perception.

JD Vance's approval dips amid challenges in Iran war negotiations and political setbacks

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

JD Vance faced declining favorability and political difficulties related to his role in Iran war negotiations and the loss of Hungarian ally Viktor Orban, contributing to a market price drop from 19% to 15%.

JD Vance praises Viktor Orban during Budapest visit ahead of Hungarian elections

JD Vance visited Budapest and praised outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban as a transformational leader, expressing regret over Orban's defeat. This foreign policy engagement raised Vance's profile and contributed to market interest.

Tucker Carlson publicly withdraws support for Donald Trump and apologizes

Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%

Tucker Carlson distanced himself from Trump, apologizing for misleading supporters, which led to a sharp decline in his market price from 50% to around 3%.

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, boosting Vance's perceived viability and causing a temporary price increase.

California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaims April 2026 as Autism Acceptance Month

Gavin Newsom rises to 18%2%

Governor Newsom issued a proclamation for Autism Acceptance Month, a routine gubernatorial action that had limited impact on his presidential market price, which remained stable around 16-18%.

Criticism mounts over Jon Ossoff's acceptance of billionaire donations

Reports revealed Senator Ossoff accepted significant campaign contributions from billionaires despite his public criticism of wealthy donors, leading to accusations of hypocrisy and impacting his political standing and market price.

Jon Ossoff criticized for accepting billionaire donations despite anti-corruption stance

Reports revealed Ossoff's acceptance of donations from billionaires, which contrasted with his anti-corruption rhetoric, possibly causing some market skepticism and price fluctuations.

Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes post referencing genocide

JD Vance dips to 21%2%

The controversy over Vance’s deleted post sparked criticism from diplomatic circles, slightly lowering his market price from 23% to 21% as the episode raised questions about his foreign‑policy judgment.

Tucker Carlson Apologizes for Supporting Donald Trump and Slams Iran War

Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%

Tucker Carlson publicly broke with Donald Trump over the administration's military actions in Iran, apologizing to his audience and cementing his exit from the MAGA mainstream.

JD Vance's shadow campaign exposed as he courts billionaire donors

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance was reported to be strengthening ties with billionaire donors through high-profile fundraisers, signaling early groundwork for a 2028 presidential run. This news likely contributed to a brief price increase around late April as the market reacted to his growing financial backing.

Conservative radio host endorses Jon Ossoff in Georgia Senate race

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Jon Ossoff received a surprising endorsement from conservative talk radio host Shelley Wynter, providing a boost to his campaign and increasing his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential contender, reflected in a price increase.

Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade and fires on ships

The escalation of the Iran-US conflict in the Strait of Hormuz significantly increased geopolitical risk, impacting global energy markets and the political landscape.

Gavin Newsom's PAC spends $1.5 million buying copies of his own book

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%

Newsom's political action committee spent over $1.5 million to purchase 67,000 copies of his memoir, inflating sales figures and drawing criticism. This controversy contributed to a dip in his market price from 17% to 15%.

Poll shows Marco Rubio gaining ground in 2028 GOP primary speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

A mid-April poll by Echelon Insights indicated JD Vance leading the Republican primary field, but Marco Rubio was gaining momentum, reflected in rising market prices. Rubio's increased visibility as Secretary of State and speculation about his candidacy contributed to this shift.

Jon Ossoff expands support to small businesses in Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff announced delivery of resources to small business training programs in Georgia, signaling active engagement with constituents and boosting his campaign profile, reflected in a slight price increase.

JD Vance appeals to MAGA youth amid foreign policy setbacks

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

Vice President JD Vance acknowledged young conservatives' frustration with Middle East policy during a Turning Point USA event, attempting to maintain support despite criticism over his handling of the Iran war and foreign assignments. This corresponded with a decline in his market odds from 19% to 15%.

California Medicaid funds deferred over suspected fraud, Vance involved

Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%

JD Vance announced steps to defer $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, showcasing his role in anti-fraud efforts and boosting his credibility on fiscal responsibility, aiding his market position.

JD Vance Targets H-1B Visa Fraud and Outlines Immigration Stance

Vice President JD Vance defended the administration's strict immigration policies and highlighted a 90 percent drop in H-1B visas due to administrative actions, while balancing praise for his Indian-origin in-laws.

Gavin Newsom Expresses Private Frustration Over California Gubernatorial Field

Gavin Newsom dips to 17%1%

Leaked private opinions revealed Governor Gavin Newsom's harsh critiques of all remaining Democratic candidates vying to succeed him, highlighting party infighting.

Governor Gavin Newsom calls special election to fill Eric Swalwell’s seat

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%

Gavin Newsom's announcement of a special election in California amid a political scandal increased his profile but also introduced uncertainty, leading to a slight price decrease from 17% to 15%.

Kamala Harris leads in Yale Youth Poll with 43% favorability among potential 2028 voters

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Harris ranked highest among potential 2028 candidates in a Yale Youth Poll, signaling strong Democratic momentum and her potential presidential run.

California Governor Gavin Newsom calls special election to fill Eric Swalwell’s congressional seat

Governor Newsom announced a special election to fill a vacant House seat, highlighting his active political role but coinciding with a slight decline in his market price, possibly reflecting political challenges.

Gavin Newsom calls special election to fill Eric Swalwell’s congressional seat

Governor Gavin Newsom called a special election to fill the vacant 14th congressional district seat after Eric Swalwell's departure, demonstrating his active role in California politics ahead of his term end, but with limited impact on his presidential prospects.

Erika Kirk skips Turning Point USA event with JD Vance amid security threats

Erika Kirk, associated with JD Vance, missed a key TPUSA event due to serious security threats, while Vance attended. This event highlighted Vance's resilience and public presence, impacting his market perception.

JD Vance defends backing of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán amid election controversy

JD Vance publicly supported Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shortly before Orbán's electoral defeat, drawing attention to Vance's foreign policy stance and impacting his market price positively around this date.

Tucker Carlson launches publishing imprint amid political controversies

Tucker Carlson's announcement of a new publishing imprint marked a shift from his previous media role, but his market price remained low at 3% due to prior controversies.

Pete Buttigieg speaks at Earlham College Presidential Lecture Series

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Buttigieg's engagement as a speaker at a prestigious college lecture series highlighted his ongoing political relevance and potential 2028 presidential ambitions.

JD Vance leads US delegation in unsuccessful Iran peace talks in Pakistan

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Vice President JD Vance headed the US delegation in peace negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, which failed to produce a deal. This diplomatic setback, along with a loss for Hungarian ally Viktor Orbán, contributed to a decline in Vance's market price.

JD Vance Announces US-Iran Peace Talks Collapse in Islamabad After 21 Hours

Vice President JD Vance announced that the US delegation withdrew from negotiations in Islamabad without a deal due to disagreements over nuclear guarantees, causing immediate market reactions.

JD Vance leads critical U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

Vice President JD Vance headed the U.S. delegation in high-stakes talks with Iran in Islamabad, marking a significant foreign policy role that boosted his visibility and market price. This involvement underscored his prominence in the Trump administration and potential 2028 candidacy.

US-Iran Peace Talks in Islamabad End Without Agreement

High-stakes negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan ended without a formal deal, with Vance stating the Iranian delegation lacked the authority to finalize terms.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

Vice President JD Vance travelled to Islamabad for Iran‑related talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The diplomatic assignment was widely reported as a high‑stakes test for Vance’s foreign‑policy credentials, and the market price for Vance fell from 31 % on 2026‑01‑03 to 27 % on 2026‑01‑17, reflecting dampened expectations for his presidential bid.

Kamala Harris announces new climate initiative, draws bipartisan praise

While the initiative was well‑received, it had little effect on her market price, which remained steady at 6%, reflecting limited impact on her presidential prospects.

JD Vance's diplomatic efforts in Iran peace talks face setbacks

JD Vance drops to 19%9%

Vice President JD Vance's role in Iran war peace talks was seen as a failure, leading to a decline in his market price from 28% to 19%.

Vice President JD Vance meets with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for Iran talks in Islamabad

Vance led U.S. delegation in negotiations with Iran, a significant diplomatic event that drew attention to his foreign policy capabilities and potential 2028 campaign.

JD Vance faces setbacks after failed Iran peace talks and Hungarian election loss

JD Vance dips to 16%3%

JD Vance's role in unsuccessful Iran negotiations and association with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's electoral defeat led to declining market confidence, with his price dropping from 19% to 16%.

Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest indication yet of a possible third campaign. This announcement increased market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a price rise from 3% to 4% around this date.

Kamala Harris hints she may consider a 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris dips to 3%1%

During an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, Harris said she was “thinking about” a 2028 run, but the ambiguous comment coincided with a sharp decline in her market price from 4 % (Mar 26) to 3 % (Apr 13).

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, generating renewed speculation and modest price increase in her market outcome.

JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life

JD Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements against abortion rights at the March for Life rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to pro-life voters.

Kamala Harris hints at possible 2028 presidential run in National Action Network speech

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, during a speech at the National Action Network Convention, suggested she might run for president again in 2028, sparking renewed speculation and slight market interest.

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated at the National Action Network Convention that she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest public indication yet. This announcement led to a modest increase in her market price as she emerged as a leading Democratic contender.

Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest indication yet of a potential campaign. This announcement boosted her market price as it increased expectations of her candidacy.

Kamala Harris publicly hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she was "thinking about" running for president in 2028 during a high-profile civil rights conference, which boosted her market price and signaled renewed political ambitions.

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running for president in 2028

Kamala Harris dips to 3%3%

Harris publicly said she was “thinking about” a 2028 run at the National Action Network convention, which coincided with her market price sliding from 6 % on July 11 to 3 % by mid‑April as traders weighed her diminished odds after a disappointing 2024 campaign.

Kamala Harris publicly considers 2028 presidential run at National Action Network

Former Vice President Kamala Harris openly stated she is thinking about running for president in 2028, marking her strongest public indication yet and slightly influencing her market odds downward amid competition.

Kamala Harris signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 6%3%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave the clearest indication yet of a 2028 presidential bid during a fireside chat with Al Sharpton, boosting her market price from 3% to 6%. This event marked a significant step in her campaign preparations.

Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris Tease 2028 Presidential Runs at NAN Convention

At the National Action Network convention, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris both gave strong public signals of their intentions to run for president in 2028, driving market speculation.

Kamala Harris Teases Potential 2028 Presidential Bid at Civil Rights Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris confirmed she is 'thinking about' running for president in 2028 during a fireside chat at the National Action Network Convention, marking her clearest signal yet of a future campaign.

Kamala Harris Teases 2028 Presidential Bid at Civil Rights Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris gave her clearest signal yet of a potential 2028 White House run during a fireside chat with Rev. Al Sharpton, boosting her market profile.

California Medicaid funds deferred over suspected fraud, sparking political dispute

Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%

The Trump administration deferred $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds to California over suspected fraud, leading to a dispute with Governor Gavin Newsom. This controversy likely contributed to a rise in Newsom's market price from 10% to 17%.

Kamala Harris signals she is considering 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Kamala Harris publicly indicated at the National Action Network Convention that she is thinking about running for president in 2028, marking her clearest signal yet and causing a modest increase in her market price.

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Buttigieg's public statement indicating a potential 2028 run led to increased market attention, though his price declined overall, reflecting mixed market sentiment.

Kamala Harris Confirms She Is 'Thinking About' Running for President in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris confirmed at the National Action Network Convention that she is actively considering another presidential bid in 2028, marking her most open public remarks on her political future.

JD Vance leads US delegation in Iran war peace talks in Pakistan

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Vice President JD Vance headed the US delegation in critical peace negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, raising his profile but also exposing him to scrutiny over the administration's handling of the conflict, contributing to a decline in his market price.

Sexual misconduct allegations against Eric Swalwell disrupt California governor race

Gavin Newsom rises to 18%2%

Allegations against Eric Swalwell led to his suspension from the California governor race, causing uncertainty and shifts in support among candidates, impacting Gavin Newsom's political landscape as he prepares to leave office.

JD Vance calls Iran ceasefire a 'fragile truce' amid ongoing tensions

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance publicly described the Iran ceasefire as fragile and emphasized President Trump's impatience for progress, highlighting his active role in foreign policy which influenced his market price positively around early April.

US Vice President JD Vance backs Hungary’s Viktor Orbán on election tour

JD Vance dips to 18%3%

Vice‑President Vance traveled to Budapest to support Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán ahead of elections. The foreign‑policy outreach was covered widely and helped freeze Vance’s market price at 18% after a brief dip.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $9.6 million in first quarter of 2025

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's record-breaking fundraising haul demonstrated her strong grassroots support, though her market price declined possibly due to strategic positioning and public perception.

Tucker Carlson publicly breaks with Donald Trump amid Iran policy dispute

Carlson's public criticism of Trump and subsequent fallout led to a dramatic collapse in his market price, reflecting diminished influence and support within the conservative base.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff raises $12 M for 2026 reelection

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

A NetChoice/Echelon Insights poll showed Ossoff leading his Senate race, and AP reported he raised $12 million for his 2026 reelection, lifting his market price from 3 % to 4 %.

JD Vance appointed 'fraud czar' to investigate election fraud

JD Vance dips to 18%3%

President Trump announced that Vice President JD Vance would lead investigations into election fraud, raising Vance's profile and possibly affecting market perceptions of his political influence.

JD Vance announces upcoming book 'Communion' amid 2028 speculation

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance's announcement of his new book 'Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith' intensified speculation about a 2028 presidential run, a common pre-campaign move, which influenced market perceptions and price movements.

JD Vance announces faith memoir 'Communion' amid 2028 speculation

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance announced the upcoming release of his memoir 'Communion' detailing his spiritual journey, intensifying speculation about a 2028 presidential run and contributing to a temporary rise in his market price.

Vice President JD Vance leads 2028 Republican primary with 37% GOP voter support in Verasight poll

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

A national Verasight poll showed Vance leading with 37% support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, boosting his name recognition and favorable impressions.

JD Vance to release new book 'Communion' in June

JD Vance rises to 32%2%

The announcement of Vance's upcoming book intensified speculation he is preparing for a 2028 presidential campaign, as book releases are common campaign precursors.

Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance

JD Vance dips to 19%2%

The arrest of a man for threatening to kill Vance heightened security concerns and political tensions, contributing to a decline in Vance's market price due to perceived risks.

Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child

Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with their fourth child, a personal milestone that humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his market perception.

JD Vance tops Conservative Political Action Conference poll as favored 2028 GOP candidate

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

JD Vance's leading position in the CPAC poll boosted his market price, reflecting increased support and visibility as a potential Republican presidential candidate in 2028.

JD Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential nominee

JD Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the second consecutive year, signaling strong grassroots support among conservative activists. This event solidified his frontrunner status and supported his market price near its peak.

JD Vance tops CPAC’s straw poll for 2028 presidential race

JD Vance topped the CPAC straw poll for the second year, reinforcing his status as the Republican front‑runner for 2028 and pushing his market probability up to its peak of 32 % in mid‑December 2025 before stabilising at 19 % by the end of the window.

Rubio trails only Vance in CPAC straw poll, hints at 2028 viability

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

CNN’s coverage of the CPAC straw poll showed Rubio trailing only Vance, sparking a modest rise from 7 % to 10 % in early March and culminating at 12 % on Mar 20 2026.

JD Vance tops 2026 CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican presidential nomination

JD Vance dips to 21%2%

Vice President JD Vance won the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll with 53% support, reinforcing his frontrunner status for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination and boosting his market price.

Rubio gains early momentum in CPAC 2028 straw poll

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

Rubio’s showing at the 2026 CPAC straw poll (35 % support) lifted his market price from a low of 5 % in mid‑2025 to 10 % by early March 2026 and to 12 % by mid‑April, reflecting growing Republican donor interest.

Vice President JD Vance tops CPAC straw poll for 2028 Republican nominee

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance won the CPAC straw poll for the second consecutive year, solidifying his position as the leading Republican contender and supporting his market price around 19%.

JD Vance tops CPAC poll for 2028 GOP nomination

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

A Newsweek poll released after the Conservative Political Action Conference showed JD Vance leading a covert GOP poll for the 2028 nomination, pushing his market price up from 19 % to 28 % over the next few weeks.

Vice‑President Vance unveils stricter immigration‑restriction policy

JD Vance dips to 18%2%

Vance promoted a new immigration‑restriction policy, causing his price to fall from 20 % on 2026‑03‑04 to 18 % on 2026‑04‑06 (‑2 points).

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear criticizes JD Vance, escalating 2028 tensions

JD Vance dips to 22%3%

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear publicly criticized Vice President JD Vance, calling him arrogant and vowing to oppose him in 2028, which added to political tensions and may have contributed to Vance's market price decline.

Pete Buttigieg campaigns nationwide for 2026 midterms and 2028 positioning

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg traveled extensively to support Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms, aiming to build a broad coalition and national profile for a potential 2028 presidential run, though his market price declined slightly.

Pete Buttigieg intensifies 2026 midterm campaign efforts

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg traveled extensively to support Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms, aiming to build a broad coalition and national profile for a possible 2028 presidential run.

Marco Rubio's 2028 GOP nomination chances quadruple amid Iran war

Marco Rubio surges to 27%20%

Marco Rubio's chances of becoming the 2028 Republican nominee surged, quadrupling in four months due to his effective foreign policy role and rising popularity within the party.

Republican donors plot to boost Marco Rubio for 2028 presidential run

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

A group of Republican donors began quietly organizing to support Secretary of State Marco Rubio's potential 2028 presidential bid, increasing his visibility and market price amid speculation of a GOP primary challenge to JD Vance.

Marco Rubio gains momentum in 2028 GOP race amid Iran war role

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Marco Rubio's prominent role in the Trump administration's response to the Iran conflict boosted his profile and support among Republicans, leading to a rise in his market price from 7% to 12%.

JD Vance addresses Turning Point USA convention amid Republican discord

JD Vance rises to 26%2%

JD Vance delivered a speech at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, advocating inclusivity in conservatism and receiving endorsement from the influential group, which bolstered his standing among Republican voters.

JD Vance promotes anti-fraud measures in Medicaid and Medicare programs

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

JD Vance announced new steps in the Trump administration's initiative to combat fraud in federal health programs, including deferring Medicaid funds to California. This bolstered his image as a reformer and likely supported his market price.

Pete Buttigieg discusses 2028 presidential prospects amid midterm campaigning

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg explained his national outreach efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms, positioning himself as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, which corresponded with his market price movements.

JD Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes social media post

JD Vance dips to 25%2%

JD Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial but deleted a social media post referring to it as 'genocide,' reflecting diplomatic sensitivity and causing mixed reactions that may have influenced his market perception.

Marco Rubio's 2028 presidential chances rise amid GOP dynamics

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

Marco Rubio's market price increased notably in March 2026 as he gained traction as a viable Republican contender, narrowing the gap with JD Vance and reflecting shifting party dynamics.

Marco Rubio gains in polls as a strong Republican contender

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

Polls in early 2026 showed Rubio increasing support, reflected in market price gains, positioning him as a notable challenger within the Republican field.

Marco Rubio's market price peaks

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Marco Rubio's market price saw a notable increase, reflecting growing speculation about his political future and potential role in the 2028 election cycle.

Marco Rubio's 2028 presidential campaign speculation peaks at 16%

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Rubio's 2028 presidential campaign speculation peaked at 16% during a period of increased media attention, though he remained non-committal about running. This peak was part of broader market volatility.

Marco Rubio joins Vance at Winter Olympics, raising his profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at the Olympics provided Rubio with a visibility boost, coinciding with his price jump from 7% to 15% over the month.

Marco Rubio Overtakes JD Vance in 2028 Prediction Markets

Marco Rubio rises to 12%2%

Amid tensions over the Iran operation and his prominent role in Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged past Vice President JD Vance in early 2028 presidential markets.

Secretary Rubio secures EU trade‑sanctions accord

Marco Rubio jumps to 14%6%

Rubio announced a breakthrough agreement with the European Union on trade sanctions, boosting his foreign‑policy credentials. The market’s Rubio price jumped from 8 % on 2026‑02‑23 to 14 % on 2026‑03‑11 (+6 points).

Marco Rubio’s poll surge after strong debate performance

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Rubio’s strong showing in a nationally televised debate improved his poll numbers, lifting his market price from 10% to 13% as voters viewed him as a credible alternative.

Iran war elevates Marco Rubio's profile in 2028 GOP race

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent role in the administration's response to the Iran war boosted his standing in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination race, reflected in his price rising from 7% to 12%.

Marjorie Taylor Greene floats Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidency

Tucker Carlson rises to 2%1%

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 following public disagreements between Carlson and Donald Trump over foreign policy.

Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidency

Tucker Carlson rises to 3%2%

Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly declared support for Tucker Carlson's potential 2028 presidential bid, claiming he could beat Trump, which briefly revived Carlson's market price from near zero to 3%.

Rubio climbs to 11 % in Saint Anselm College’s 2028 primary poll

Marco Rubio rises to 11%3%

A Saint Anselm College poll released on 2026‑03‑05 gave Rubio 11 % in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, lifting his market price from 8 % (Jan 10 2026) to 11 % (Mar 13 2026) before a modest pull‑back to 9 % by the end of the window.

Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Tucker Carlson for 2028 presidency

Tucker Carlson rises to 3%2%

Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly supported Tucker Carlson's potential 2028 presidential bid, claiming he could beat Trump. This endorsement briefly boosted Carlson's market price from near 1% to 3%, though his overall support remained low due to ongoing controversies.

Fans boo Vice President JD Vance during Olympic opening ceremony

JD Vance dips to 19%2%

During the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Games, Vance was booed on the stadium screens, a public backlash that pushed his market price down further to 19 % by early March.

Donald Trump Declares Tucker Carlson is 'Not MAGA' After Public Clashes

President Donald Trump publicly broke with Tucker Carlson, declaring that the conservative commentator had 'lost his way' and was 'not MAGA' following disagreements over foreign policy and public statements.

Jon Ossoff enters 2026 Senate race with strong fundraising advantage

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Ossoff's announcement and financial strength positioned him as a strong Democratic contender in Georgia, supporting a slight market increase from 3% to 4%.

Vice President JD Vance booed during Milan Cortina opening ceremony

JD Vance dips to 23%2%

The public jeering of Vance at the Olympics’ opening ceremony hurt his public image, contributing to a further decline in his price from 25% to 23% as voters questioned his popularity abroad.

JD Vance and family attend U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics

JD Vance attended U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics with his family, maintaining a positive public image and visibility during the Olympics, which supported his steady market presence.

JD Vance attends US women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul

JD Vance dips to 18%3%

JD Vance's public appearances with popular figures like Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics helped maintain his public profile, though with limited direct market impact.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul

JD Vance dips to 19%1%

JD Vance's attendance at high-profile Olympic events with popular figures like Jake Paul increased his public exposure, potentially influencing market perceptions positively.

Marco Rubio signals support for JD Vance's potential 2028 run

Marco Rubio rises to 10%2%

Marco Rubio publicly acknowledged JD Vance as the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination and indicated he would support Vance if he runs, boosting Vance's market position and Rubio's own prospects.

JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics

JD Vance rises to 23%2%

JD Vance’s public appearance with Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and connected him with younger audiences, slightly boosting his market price.

JD Vance touts Trump administration’s record against abortion at March for Life rally

JD Vance rises to 30%3%

Vance's public endorsement of the Trump administration's anti-abortion policies at a major rally reinforced his conservative credentials, impacting his market price positively among right-leaning supporters.

JD Vance criticized for refusing to denounce bigotry at Turning Point USA event

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

JD Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, where he declined to condemn antisemitism and bigotry, sparked controversy within conservative circles, leading to a decline in his market price as some supporters questioned his stance.

JD Vance announces family expansion with fourth child expected

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

The announcement that Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha are expecting their fourth child was positively received, reinforcing his family-oriented image and contributing to a modest increase in his market price.

Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service

JD Vance rises to 25%2%

An attack on JD Vance's home brought national attention to his security and personal life, eliciting public sympathy and reinforcing his profile, which helped stabilize his market price.

Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative discord

JD Vance rises to 28%2%

Turning Point USA publicly reaffirmed its support for JD Vance during its AmericaFest convention, solidifying his position as a leading conservative candidate.

US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, boosting Marco Rubio's profile

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent role in the US response to the Iran war elevated his standing among Republicans and increased his market odds for the 2028 nomination.

Governor Newsom releases 2025 judicial appointment data

Gavin Newsom rises to 18%1%

Newsom's release of judicial appointment data highlighted his influence on California's judiciary, enhancing his profile among legal and political circles ahead of 2028.

Gavin Newsom calls JD Vance 'dangerous' and criticizes Marco Rubio

JD Vance drops to 22%5%

Gavin Newsom publicly criticized Republican contenders JD Vance and Marco Rubio, labeling Vance as 'more dangerous than Trump' and Rubio a 'fraud,' which influenced market perceptions and contributed to declines in their prices.

JD Vance campaigns with Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin

JD Vance dips to 25%2%

JD Vance actively campaigned for Republican Derrick Van Orden, emphasizing tax cuts and rural healthcare, demonstrating his ongoing political engagement and boosting his visibility ahead of 2028, which supported his market price.

Vance pulls out of Munich conference after 2025 controversy

JD Vance dips to 21%3%

Vice‑President JD Vance announced he would skip the Munich Security Conference after a heated 2025 speech. The move was interpreted as a diplomatic setback for the administration and caused Vance’s market price to fall from 24 % on 2026‑02‑19 to 21 % on 2026‑03‑07.

Officials defer $1.3 billion in California Medicaid funds over suspected fraud

Gavin Newsom dips to 18%4%

Vice President JD Vance announced a deferral of $1.3 billion in Medicaid funding to California due to suspected fraud, highlighting his role in anti-fraud efforts and impacting Gavin Newsom's market price negatively while slightly benefiting Rubio's position.

Gavin Newsom wins California gubernatorial primary, gains national attention

Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%

Newsom’s primary victory and renewed national profile boosted his perceived electability, raising his price from 10% to 14% as the market saw him as a viable contender.

Gov. Newsom says some are talking about Israel as an apartheid state

Gavin Newsom rises to 23%1%

Newsom's remarks at the World Economic Forum questioning Israel's policies intensified debate about his foreign‑policy stance, nudging his market price upward from 22 % to 23 % before a gradual decline later in the year.

Vice President JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

JD Vance strongly condemned racist attacks against his wife Usha Vance, including those by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a firm stance that likely bolstered his support among moderate conservatives and his base, stabilizing his market price.

Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic polling in New Hampshire

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led early 2028 Democratic presidential polling in New Hampshire, reflecting growing support and positioning him as a key contender, though his market price declined later.

Vance's 2028 presidential run speculation intensifies as Rubio confirms support

Vance and Rubio became central figures in 2028 nomination speculation, with Rubio stating he would not enter the race if Vance did.

JD Vance's 2028 presidential run speculation intensifies as Trump's potential successor

A POLITICO article described Vance as 'the strongest likely contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination' and noted that Trump had declined to endorse either Vance or Marco Rubio. This solidified Vance as the central figure in 2028 Republican succession speculation.

JD Vance described as 'the strongest likely contender' for 2028 Republican nomination

JD Vance drops to 21%7%

A POLITICO article described JD Vance as the top Republican contender for the 2028 nomination, highlighting his growing influence in Republican circles.

JD Vance's foreign policy stance draws global attention

JD Vance's aggressive foreign policy statements, including criticism of European countries, increased his profile among global power players.

Jon Ossoff delivers viral anti-Trump speech, sparks 2028 front-runner talk

Jon Ossoff rises to 3%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's scathing speech against President Trump went viral, raising his national profile and sparking speculation about his 2028 presidential prospects, which modestly increased his market price.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Scathing Anti-Trump Speech, Sparking 2028 Buzz

Jon Ossoff rises to 2%1%

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful speech criticizing Donald Trump that went viral, leading to widespread speculation that he could be a Democratic frontrunner in 2028.

Vice President JD Vance watches women’s Olympic hockey with Jake Paul

JD Vance dips to 27%3%

Vance’s appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a U.S. women's hockey game during the Olympics generated extensive media coverage, but also sparked criticism, leading to a modest dip in his market price from 30 % to 27 %.

JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his public profile and positively affected his market price, reflecting broader appeal and media coverage.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at Munich Security Conference

Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%

Rubio, now Secretary of State, delivered a high‑profile speech at the Munich Security Conference. His elevated foreign‑policy profile boosted his national visibility and drove his market price from 7% to 10% by early March 2026.

Rubio calls Europe a friend but says it must change at Munich conference

Marco Rubio jumps to 10%5%

Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing a strong U.S. stance on Europe, was widely covered and boosted his visibility as a national figure, lifting his market price from 5 % in early February to 10 % by early March.

Marco Rubio delivers critical speech at Munich Security Conference urging Europe to change

Marco Rubio jumps to 23%13%

Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing the need for Europe to change, enhanced his foreign policy credentials and contributed to a price increase from 10% to 23%.

Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a high‑profile speech at the Munich Security Conference, positioning himself as a key foreign‑policy voice. The appearance coincided with a rise in his market price from 7 % on 2026‑02‑07 to 12 % on 2026‑03‑14, the highest level recorded in the analysis period.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez commits not to fund weapons for Israel

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%2%

At a New York City forum, Ocasio-Cortez pledged not to vote for military funding for Israel, reflecting her progressive stance on foreign policy and impacting her market price negatively.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at Munich Security Conference amid presidential speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%

AOC's participation in the Munich Security Conference raised her profile on foreign policy and fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, though her market price declined slightly due to mixed reception.

JD Vance visits Hungary to support Viktor Orbán's reelection campaign

Vance's international political engagement by campaigning for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán highlighted his active vice presidency and conservative credentials, influencing his market position.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizes U.S. military aid to Israel at Munich Security Conference

At the Munich Security Conference, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called for reconsideration of U.S. military aid to Israel, raising her profile on foreign policy and energizing her progressive base, impacting her market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticizes US military aid to Israel at Munich Security Conference

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 6%3%

AOC's statement that US military aid to Israel enabled genocide in Gaza sparked controversy and criticism, contributing to a decline in her market price from 9% to 6%.

AOC faces backlash after Munich Security Conference remarks

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 6%3%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez sparked controversy with a speech at the Munich Security Conference that was widely criticized. The negative reaction coincided with a decline in her market price from 9 % on 2026‑02‑10 to 6 % on 2026‑04‑13.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Heads to Munich Security Conference to Present Foreign Policy Vision

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sought to bolster her international and foreign policy credentials with a highly publicized speech at the Munich Security Conference, fueling 2028 speculation.

JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance led the U.S. delegation at the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony, maintaining his public profile internationally. Despite being booed by some spectators, this event kept Vance in the spotlight during early 2026.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile U.S. women's hockey game alongside influencer Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and public engagement, potentially boosting his market appeal.

JD Vance and Jake Paul watch U.S. women’s hockey at Winter Olympics

JD Vance dips to 23%2%

Vance’s appearance with influencer‑boxer Jake Paul at a U.S. women’s hockey game during the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics raised his profile among younger voters and caused a modest rebound for his market price from 25 % back to 23 % the following week.

JD Vance hints at 2028 presidential bid after midterms in Fox News interview

JD Vance jumps to 30%5%

In a February 6, 2026 interview, JD Vance suggested he might consider a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterm elections, which likely influenced market optimism and price increases for his candidacy.

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony

JD Vance rises to 26%1%

JD Vance's prominent role at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio increased his visibility and reinforced his stature as a national leader, positively impacting his market position.

Supreme Court hears case on Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, featuring JD Vance

JD Vance dips to 25%2%