Persistent mid-level ridging centered over the southern Plains is sustaining clear skies, strong daytime heating, and minimal cloud cover across central Texas, supporting highs near or slightly above the July 31 climatological normal of 99°F. Recent NWS guidance highlights continued hot, dry conditions through month-end with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s under light winds and high solar insolation. Model consensus points to a narrow range around 100°F, with minor differences in boundary-layer moisture or subtle steering flow determining whether readings peak in the 98–99°F or 100–101°F bin; any unexpected increase in afternoon cumulus or a slightly stronger southerly return flow could tip the maximum lower. Traders are weighting the 100–101°F outcome highest because ensemble guidance and recent verification favor the warmer side of normal in this ridge-dominated pattern.