Recent weather model runs for Chengdu point to a highest temperature on August 21 most likely between 31–33 °C, producing the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those outcomes. Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models show afternoon highs near 32 °C under partly cloudy skies, with modest uncertainty arising from variable monsoon moisture, Sichuan Basin humidity trapping heat, and subtle differences in predicted cloud cover and timing of any brief showers. Historical August climatology places typical daily maxima around 31 °C, so current guidance sits near the seasonal norm; traders are weighting the spread of model solutions and the narrow two-day window until resolution, where small shifts in steering flow or convective development could nudge the peak by 1 °C in either direction.