**Traders assign a 90.5% probability against another Japanese Lower House dissolution in 2026 because Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a decisive supermajority in the February 8 snap election.** The landslide victory, which followed the January 23 dissolution and gave the ruling bloc over two-thirds of seats, delivered a clear mandate and reduced incentives for an early repeat contest. With a four-year term now secured and coalition support intact, the government faces no immediate procedural or political pressure to call fresh elections before year-end. Recent reporting highlights ongoing fiscal policy debates and modest approval-rating softening, yet these have not triggered instability or opposition momentum sufficient to prompt dissolution. Historical patterns show Japanese prime ministers typically avoid additional snaps shortly after strong mandates, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.