Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 12%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
37%
1.15–1.19ºC
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
43%
1.25–1.29ºC
41%
>1.29ºC
42%
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 12%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
43%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
>1.29ºC
$270 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
ভলিউম
$446শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$446শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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