Forecasts for Tel Aviv on August 28 point to a typical late-summer Mediterranean pattern, with model consensus placing the overnight minimum near 25°C amid light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and high humidity that moderates radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging 23–25°C, rarely dipping below 22°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–25°C. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on variables such as wind speed shifts, cloud timing, or minor advection changes that numerical models resolve differently at short range. The lower probability assigned to 29°C or higher aligns with the absence of anomalous heat or suppressed mixing, while probabilities below 21°C remain marginal given the sea’s thermal buffering and seasonal baseline. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs against this narrow historical envelope as the 48-hour window closes.