Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23.0% for $7,000-$7,500—amid the index's rally to a record 7,126, driven by strong Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.5% year-over-year. This tight contest reflects competing forces: robust revenue trends and AI productivity boosts supporting upside versus elevated forward P/E ratios near 20, the Fed's fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with only one cut projected amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP slowdown signals and sustained corporate margins; the April FOMC meeting and ongoing earnings could tip sentiment. Analyst targets average ~7,500, underscoring prediction market caution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 12%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
17%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 12%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,576 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Vol.
17%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,869 Vol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Vol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23.0% for $7,000-$7,500—amid the index's rally to a record 7,126, driven by strong Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.5% year-over-year. This tight contest reflects competing forces: robust revenue trends and AI productivity boosts supporting upside versus elevated forward P/E ratios near 20, the Fed's fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with only one cut projected amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP slowdown signals and sustained corporate margins; the April FOMC meeting and ongoing earnings could tip sentiment. Analyst targets average ~7,500, underscoring prediction market caution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
ভলিউম
$19,167শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23.0% for $7,000-$7,500—amid the index's rally to a record 7,126, driven by strong Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.5% year-over-year. This tight contest reflects competing forces: robust revenue trends and AI productivity boosts supporting upside versus elevated forward P/E ratios near 20, the Fed's fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with only one cut projected amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP slowdown signals and sustained corporate margins; the April FOMC meeting and ongoing earnings could tip sentiment. Analyst targets average ~7,500, underscoring prediction market caution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
ভলিউম
$19,167শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23.0% for $7,000-$7,500—amid the index's rally to a record 7,126, driven by strong Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.5% year-over-year. This tight contest reflects competing forces: robust revenue trends and AI productivity boosts supporting upside versus elevated forward P/E ratios near 20, the Fed's fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with only one cut projected amid sticky inflation and Middle East tensions. Key swing factors include Q4 GDP slowdown signals and sustained corporate margins; the April FOMC meeting and ongoing earnings could tip sentiment. Analyst targets average ~7,500, underscoring prediction market caution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা