Justin Pearson leads the TN-09 Democratic primary market at 57.5% as the frontrunner following Rep. Steve Cohen’s May withdrawal after Republican redistricting shifted the Memphis-based district toward more competitive territory. Pearson, a state representative with prior national visibility and backing from a majority of House Democratic colleagues, benefits from this open-seat dynamic ahead of the August 6 primary. DeVante Hill holds the next position at 10.9% as a community activist in the field, while Steve Cohen sits at 3.5% post-retirement. Trader consensus reflects Pearson’s established local profile and the absence of a dominant alternative, with the outcome hinging on turnout among Memphis Democratic voters and any late endorsements.