**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices several 2026 Senate races as most likely to finish within a 5% margin, reflecting polling averages and structural factors in battleground states.** Ohio’s special election, Michigan’s open seat, and contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas currently carry the highest implied probabilities. These races feature open seats after retirements, strong challengers such as Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska, and state-level dynamics that have produced consistent polling within or near single digits. Broader factors include the national environment under the current administration, candidate recruitment and primary outcomes, and historical turnout patterns in these swing or lean states. The November 3 election remains the resolution trigger, with late shifts possible from debates, endorsements, or economic developments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$70,452 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
76%
Iowa
70%
South Carolina
62%
New Hampshire
61%
Kansas
61%
Alaska
60%
Maine
60%
Michigan
57%
Ohio (Special)
51%
Nebraska
48%
Minnesota
26%
North Carolina
25%
Georgia
21%
Florida (Special)
17%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
11%
Colorado
3%
Virginia
2%
$70,452 Vol.
Texas
$8,072 Vol.
76%
Iowa
$5,914 Vol.
70%
South Carolina
$149 Vol.
62%
New Hampshire
$2,448 Vol.
61%
Kansas
$773 Vol.
61%
Alaska
$3,331 Vol.
60%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
60%
Michigan
$3,187 Vol.
57%
Ohio (Special)
$4,695 Vol.
51%
Nebraska
$4,075 Vol.
48%
Minnesota
$10,816 Vol.
26%
North Carolina
$5,930 Vol.
25%
Georgia
$2,613 Vol.
21%
Florida (Special)
$3,140 Vol.
17%
New Mexico
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Montana
$3,210 Vol.
11%
Colorado
$2,625 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices several 2026 Senate races as most likely to finish within a 5% margin, reflecting polling averages and structural factors in battleground states.**
Ohio’s special election, Michigan’s open seat, and contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas currently carry the highest implied probabilities. These races feature open seats after retirements, strong challengers such as Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska, and state-level dynamics that have produced consistent polling within or near single digits. Broader factors include the national environment under the current administration, candidate recruitment and primary outcomes, and historical turnout patterns in these swing or lean states. The November 3 election remains the resolution trigger, with late shifts possible from debates, endorsements, or economic developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$70,452শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices several 2026 Senate races as most likely to finish within a 5% margin, reflecting polling averages and structural factors in battleground states.**
Ohio’s special election, Michigan’s open seat, and contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas currently carry the highest implied probabilities. These races feature open seats after retirements, strong challengers such as Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska, and state-level dynamics that have produced consistent polling within or near single digits. Broader factors include the national environment under the current administration, candidate recruitment and primary outcomes, and historical turnout patterns in these swing or lean states. The November 3 election remains the resolution trigger, with late shifts possible from debates, endorsements, or economic developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$70,452শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices several 2026 Senate races as most likely to finish within a 5% margin, reflecting polling averages and structural factors in battleground states.** Ohio’s special election, Michigan’s open seat, and contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas currently carry the highest implied probabilities. These races feature open seats after retirements, strong challengers such as Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska, and state-level dynamics that have produced consistent polling within or near single digits. Broader factors include the national environment under the current administration, candidate recruitment and primary outcomes, and historical turnout patterns in these swing or lean states. The November 3 election remains the resolution trigger, with late shifts possible from debates, endorsements, or economic developments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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