Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have advanced a phased plan for the Lebanese Armed Forces to secure a monopoly on weapons south of the Litani River and eventually nationwide, tied to a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework that conditions Israeli withdrawals on verified Hezbollah disarmament. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and senior officials have repeatedly rejected the agreement as null, a humiliation, and a red line, warning that enforcement risks civil war, while the group has not issued any formal disarmament announcement. The LAF has reported operational control and weapons seizures in limited pilot zones, yet Israeli assessments question coordination and effectiveness, with further talks scheduled in Rome and October. These dynamics keep trader-implied probabilities for an official leadership commitment low through year-end 2026.

Apr 25 2026

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a

April 30 rises to 4%4%

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the

Apr 23 2026

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to

April 30 dips to 0%4%

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %

Show all