Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces and resources through mid-2026, with active offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts alongside repeated missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities. Force expansion efforts have fallen short of targets amid high attrition, while recruitment shortfalls and equipment constraints have slowed advances without freeing capacity for a new front. Official Russian statements emphasize readiness for defense rather than offensive expansion, and no verified preparations or deployments signal an imminent invasion of additional sovereign territory. Hybrid operations and isolated incidents have occurred, but these fall short of the threshold for a conventional invasion. Traders price the low probability accordingly, reflecting sustained focus on the existing conflict and structural limits on broader action through year-end.