Russia remains heavily engaged in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, where forces continue incremental advances in regions such as Sumy Oblast alongside sustained missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities through late July 2026. High casualties, recruitment shortfalls, and defense spending priorities have strained resources, reducing the immediate feasibility of opening a new front. Analyses highlight focus on force reconstitution timelines measured in years rather than months, alongside hybrid tactics and gray-zone pressure rather than conventional invasions of additional states. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects these capacity constraints and the absence of verified preparations or statements signaling multi-theater operations before year-end.