Russia remains engaged in its protracted campaign against Ukraine, with intensified mutual long-range drone and missile strikes, including major Ukrainian attacks on Moscow and Russian energy sites in September 2026, alongside Russian ground pressure in the Donbas "fortress belt." No verified troop buildups, official statements, or intelligence indicators point to preparations for invading additional countries such as Georgia, Moldova, or Baltic states before year-end. Drone incursions into Moldovan and Lithuanian airspace reflect hybrid tactics and spillover risks rather than conventional cross-border operations. NATO partners report no large-scale mobilizations near their borders, while U.S. sanctions legislation and ongoing elections in Russia underscore resource strain and domestic focus. Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no new invasion, consistent with assessments that escalation costs and frontline demands make such action unlikely through December.