Trader consensus on Polymarket implies just a 13% probability of an AI bubble bursting by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained massive capital expenditures from Big Tech—projected at $810 billion this year on AI infrastructure—bolstering hyperscalers like NVIDIA (market cap over $5 trillion), Microsoft, and OpenAI (valued at $750 billion). Recent year-to-date pullbacks, including Microsoft down 20% and Amazon 15%, alongside 90% AI startup failure rates and zero near-term profits from $660 billion in spending, have fueled warnings from economists like Steve Keen, yet broader indices hit records amid resilient adoption. Key swing factors include upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA and peers, plus potential regulatory probes on AI energy demands, which could test overvaluation narratives if growth disappoints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,754,146 Vol.
31. Dezember 2026
10%
$2,754,146 Vol.
31. Dezember 2026
10%
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies just a 13% probability of an AI bubble bursting by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained massive capital expenditures from Big Tech—projected at $810 billion this year on AI infrastructure—bolstering hyperscalers like NVIDIA (market cap over $5 trillion), Microsoft, and OpenAI (valued at $750 billion). Recent year-to-date pullbacks, including Microsoft down 20% and Amazon 15%, alongside 90% AI startup failure rates and zero near-term profits from $660 billion in spending, have fueled warnings from economists like Steve Keen, yet broader indices hit records amid resilient adoption. Key swing factors include upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA and peers, plus potential regulatory probes on AI energy demands, which could test overvaluation narratives if growth disappoints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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