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Finanzen·AI

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Market icon
Finanzen·AI

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

55% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
55% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader sentiment on whether Anthropic surpasses OpenAI's valuation in 2026 hinges on Anthropic's explosive revenue growth, with annualized run-rate ARR exceeding $30 billion in early April—surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion—driven by enterprise dominance and superior $211 per-user monetization versus OpenAI's consumer-focused $25. Private secondary markets reflect this shift, pricing Anthropic at $863 billion against OpenAI's $846 billion, up from Anthropic's $380 billion post-Series G funding in February and OpenAI's $852 billion post-$122 billion round in March. Anthropic's lower cash burn and projected cash-flow positivity by 2027 contrast OpenAI's $14 billion 2026 losses. Key catalysts include potential Q4 IPOs for both, which could crystallize public market valuations amid AI sector multiples exceeding 30x revenue.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).

The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader sentiment on whether Anthropic surpasses OpenAI's valuation in 2026 hinges on Anthropic's explosive revenue growth, with annualized run-rate ARR exceeding $30 billion in early April—surpassing OpenAI's $25 billion—driven by enterprise dominance and superior $211 per-user monetization versus OpenAI's consumer-focused $25. Private secondary markets reflect this shift, pricing Anthropic at $863 billion against OpenAI's $846 billion, up from Anthropic's $380 billion post-Series G funding in February and OpenAI's $852 billion post-$122 billion round in March. Anthropic's lower cash burn and projected cash-flow positivity by 2027 contrast OpenAI's $14 billion 2026 losses. Key catalysts include potential Q4 IPOs for both, which could crystallize public market valuations amid AI sector multiples exceeding 30x revenue.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).

The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 55% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 55¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 55%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Apr 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?" liegt bei 55% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 55% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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