Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on an AWS service disruption by April 30, 2026, as the deadline passed without Amazon Web Services issuing a qualifying service interruption event per its official severity classifications on the AWS Health Dashboard. Ongoing regional outages in the Middle East (UAE and Bahrain Regions)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage due to geopolitical conflict since March—have persisted with elevated error rates and throttled operations in affected Availability Zones, but their localized scope and prior onset fall short of triggering market resolution to "Yes," which demands broader impact akin to past global events. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid mitigations underscore the platform's high availability engineering, fostering unshakeable trader confidence; while rare post hoc reclassifications or unresolved disputes could theoretically prompt appeals, no such catalysts have emerged in the five days since expiration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$165,725 Vol.
$165,725 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
$165,725 Vol.
$165,725 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on an AWS service disruption by April 30, 2026, as the deadline passed without Amazon Web Services issuing a qualifying service interruption event per its official severity classifications on the AWS Health Dashboard. Ongoing regional outages in the Middle East (UAE and Bahrain Regions)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage due to geopolitical conflict since March—have persisted with elevated error rates and throttled operations in affected Availability Zones, but their localized scope and prior onset fall short of triggering market resolution to "Yes," which demands broader impact akin to past global events. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid mitigations underscore the platform's high availability engineering, fostering unshakeable trader confidence; while rare post hoc reclassifications or unresolved disputes could theoretically prompt appeals, no such catalysts have emerged in the five days since expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Volumen
$165,725Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Umstritten
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on an AWS service disruption by April 30, 2026, as the deadline passed without Amazon Web Services issuing a qualifying service interruption event per its official severity classifications on the AWS Health Dashboard. Ongoing regional outages in the Middle East (UAE and Bahrain Regions)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage due to geopolitical conflict since March—have persisted with elevated error rates and throttled operations in affected Availability Zones, but their localized scope and prior onset fall short of triggering market resolution to "Yes," which demands broader impact akin to past global events. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid mitigations underscore the platform's high availability engineering, fostering unshakeable trader confidence; while rare post hoc reclassifications or unresolved disputes could theoretically prompt appeals, no such catalysts have emerged in the five days since expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Volumen
$165,725Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Umstritten
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on an AWS service disruption by April 30, 2026, as the deadline passed without Amazon Web Services issuing a qualifying service interruption event per its official severity classifications on the AWS Health Dashboard. Ongoing regional outages in the Middle East (UAE and Bahrain Regions)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage due to geopolitical conflict since March—have persisted with elevated error rates and throttled operations in affected Availability Zones, but their localized scope and prior onset fall short of triggering market resolution to "Yes," which demands broader impact akin to past global events. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid mitigations underscore the platform's high availability engineering, fostering unshakeable trader confidence; while rare post hoc reclassifications or unresolved disputes could theoretically prompt appeals, no such catalysts have emerged in the five days since expiration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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