The Bank of Israel Monetary Committee's March 30 decision to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4%—its second straight pause—has kept trader consensus tightly clustered around no change at 50%, with decrease at 45.5% a close contender and increase at 43.5%, reflecting balanced risks ahead of the July 6 announcement. Upside inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict, dubbed Operation Roaring Lion, elevated energy prices, and a projected 5.3% fiscal deficit in 2026 prompted the hold, despite trimmed 3.8% GDP growth forecasts and forward guidance for rates at 3.5%-3.75% within a year. Traders await May 28 policy signals, April-May CPI readings capturing war impacts, and potential de-escalation by late April, any of which could tip toward easing if inflation stabilizes near the 1-3% target or toward hikes if risks intensify.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 50%
Senkung 45%
Erhöhung 43%
Senkung
45%
Keine Änderung
50%
Erhöhung
43%
Keine Änderung 50%
Senkung 45%
Erhöhung 43%
Senkung
45%
Keine Änderung
50%
Erhöhung
43%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its July 6, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their July 6, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its July 6, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their July 6, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Israel Monetary Committee's March 30 decision to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4%—its second straight pause—has kept trader consensus tightly clustered around no change at 50%, with decrease at 45.5% a close contender and increase at 43.5%, reflecting balanced risks ahead of the July 6 announcement. Upside inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict, dubbed Operation Roaring Lion, elevated energy prices, and a projected 5.3% fiscal deficit in 2026 prompted the hold, despite trimmed 3.8% GDP growth forecasts and forward guidance for rates at 3.5%-3.75% within a year. Traders await May 28 policy signals, April-May CPI readings capturing war impacts, and potential de-escalation by late April, any of which could tip toward easing if inflation stabilizes near the 1-3% target or toward hikes if risks intensify.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen