Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in direct vote-share comparisons, typically in the 18–21% range versus 16–19%. This edge reflects the CDU’s stronger base in western districts, its incumbency advantages from the prior term, and the replacement of its lead candidate, which stabilized rather than eroded support. The AfD has gained nationally and briefly topped a Berlin survey in July, yet remains constrained locally by the city’s urban demographics and the continued reluctance of other parties to cooperate with it. Traders price the CDU ahead of the AfD at 69.5% because these structural and polling patterns have held steady through the summer campaign period.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCDU
70% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
CDU
70% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in direct vote-share comparisons, typically in the 18–21% range versus 16–19%. This edge reflects the CDU’s stronger base in western districts, its incumbency advantages from the prior term, and the replacement of its lead candidate, which stabilized rather than eroded support. The AfD has gained nationally and briefly topped a Berlin survey in July, yet remains constrained locally by the city’s urban demographics and the continued reluctance of other parties to cooperate with it. Traders price the CDU ahead of the AfD at 69.5% because these structural and polling patterns have held steady through the summer campaign period.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volumen
$2,694Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in direct vote-share comparisons, typically in the 18–21% range versus 16–19%. This edge reflects the CDU’s stronger base in western districts, its incumbency advantages from the prior term, and the replacement of its lead candidate, which stabilized rather than eroded support. The AfD has gained nationally and briefly topped a Berlin survey in July, yet remains constrained locally by the city’s urban demographics and the continued reluctance of other parties to cooperate with it. Traders price the CDU ahead of the AfD at 69.5% because these structural and polling patterns have held steady through the summer campaign period.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$2,694Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election shows the CDU holding a narrow but consistent lead over the AfD in direct vote-share comparisons, typically in the 18–21% range versus 16–19%. This edge reflects the CDU’s stronger base in western districts, its incumbency advantages from the prior term, and the replacement of its lead candidate, which stabilized rather than eroded support. The AfD has gained nationally and briefly topped a Berlin survey in July, yet remains constrained locally by the city’s urban demographics and the continued reluctance of other parties to cooperate with it. Traders price the CDU ahead of the AfD at 69.5% because these structural and polling patterns have held steady through the summer campaign period.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen