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icon for Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder AfD?
Welt·Berlin

Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder AfD?

icon for Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder AfD?
Welt·Berlin

Landtagswahl Berlin: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder AfD?

Linke

72% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Linke

72% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent Berlin state election polls, including INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026, place Die Linke at or near the top with 19–21% support, ahead of the AfD at 17–19%, amid a fragmented field where CDU, Greens, and SPD trail. The September 20 vote favors Linke due to stronger performance among urban and younger voters on housing and social policy, while AfD gains remain more concentrated in eastern districts. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, and recent candidate adjustments have stabilized center-left positioning without shifting the Linke–AfD gap. Traders reflect these consistent polling differentials in the 71.5% implied probability for Linke receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$82
Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent Berlin state election polls, including INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026, place Die Linke at or near the top with 19–21% support, ahead of the AfD at 17–19%, amid a fragmented field where CDU, Greens, and SPD trail. The September 20 vote favors Linke due to stronger performance among urban and younger voters on housing and social policy, while AfD gains remain more concentrated in eastern districts. National AfD momentum has not fully translated locally, and recent candidate adjustments have stabilized center-left positioning without shifting the Linke–AfD gap. Traders reflect these consistent polling differentials in the 71.5% implied probability for Linke receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$82
Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Verwandte

icon for Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder SPD?

Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder SPD?

90%
Linke
icon for Berliner Landeswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Linke?

Berliner Landeswahl: Mehr Stimmen für CDU oder Linke?

49%
CDU
icon for Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder Grüne?

Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Mehr Stimmen für Linke oder Grüne?

81%
Linke

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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