DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview on April 24 has locked in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," with open-weights models—DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active)—now available on Hugging Face alongside a technical report touting 1M-token context and frontier-level benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agent tasks. This follows weeks of credible reports signaling an imminent late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, amid China's push for cost-effective open-source AI challenging U.S. labs. While the preview satisfies market criteria, disputes could arise if full non-preview versions emerge retroactively or resolution hinges strictly on non-preview status, though no such delays are evident.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertApril 25 <1%
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$44,086 Vol.
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$44,086 Vol.
15. Mai 2026
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This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview on April 24 has locked in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," with open-weights models—DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active)—now available on Hugging Face alongside a technical report touting 1M-token context and frontier-level benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agent tasks. This follows weeks of credible reports signaling an imminent late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, amid China's push for cost-effective open-source AI challenging U.S. labs. While the preview satisfies market criteria, disputes could arise if full non-preview versions emerge retroactively or resolution hinges strictly on non-preview status, though no such delays are evident.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$44,086Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview on April 24 has locked in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," with open-weights models—DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active)—now available on Hugging Face alongside a technical report touting 1M-token context and frontier-level benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agent tasks. This follows weeks of credible reports signaling an imminent late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, amid China's push for cost-effective open-source AI challenging U.S. labs. While the preview satisfies market criteria, disputes could arise if full non-preview versions emerge retroactively or resolution hinges strictly on non-preview status, though no such delays are evident.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$44,086Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview on April 24 has locked in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," with open-weights models—DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active)—now available on Hugging Face alongside a technical report touting 1M-token context and frontier-level benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agent tasks. This follows weeks of credible reports signaling an imminent late-April launch optimized for Huawei chips, amid China's push for cost-effective open-source AI challenging U.S. labs. While the preview satisfies market criteria, disputes could arise if full non-preview versions emerge retroactively or resolution hinges strictly on non-preview status, though no such delays are evident.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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