Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by persistent eurozone inflation above the 2% target and resilient economic growth signals. Recent euro area HICP data for December 2024 showed headline inflation at 1.9% year-over-year but core measures at 2.6%, with sticky services prices amid strong January 2025 PMIs exceeding forecasts at 51.0 expansionary. Heightened trade tensions from anticipated U.S. tariffs under the incoming administration have lifted German bund yields by 15 basis points this week, steepening the ECB forward curve and reducing cut expectations. ECB officials, including Lagarde, have flagged upside inflation risks in recent speeches, though the deposit rate remains at 3.0% post-December cut. Upcoming February CPI release and March policy meeting will be pivotal catalysts shaping this hawkish repricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 67%
No change 24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
24%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
67%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
5%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 67%
No change 24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$575 Vol.
3%
No change
$754 Vol.
24%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$690 Vol.
67%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by persistent eurozone inflation above the 2% target and resilient economic growth signals. Recent euro area HICP data for December 2024 showed headline inflation at 1.9% year-over-year but core measures at 2.6%, with sticky services prices amid strong January 2025 PMIs exceeding forecasts at 51.0 expansionary. Heightened trade tensions from anticipated U.S. tariffs under the incoming administration have lifted German bund yields by 15 basis points this week, steepening the ECB forward curve and reducing cut expectations. ECB officials, including Lagarde, have flagged upside inflation risks in recent speeches, though the deposit rate remains at 3.0% post-December cut. Upcoming February CPI release and March policy meeting will be pivotal catalysts shaping this hawkish repricing.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$2,019Enddatum
Jun 11, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by persistent eurozone inflation above the 2% target and resilient economic growth signals. Recent euro area HICP data for December 2024 showed headline inflation at 1.9% year-over-year but core measures at 2.6%, with sticky services prices amid strong January 2025 PMIs exceeding forecasts at 51.0 expansionary. Heightened trade tensions from anticipated U.S. tariffs under the incoming administration have lifted German bund yields by 15 basis points this week, steepening the ECB forward curve and reducing cut expectations. ECB officials, including Lagarde, have flagged upside inflation risks in recent speeches, though the deposit rate remains at 3.0% post-December cut. Upcoming February CPI release and March policy meeting will be pivotal catalysts shaping this hawkish repricing.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$2,019Enddatum
Jun 11, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by persistent eurozone inflation above the 2% target and resilient economic growth signals. Recent euro area HICP data for December 2024 showed headline inflation at 1.9% year-over-year but core measures at 2.6%, with sticky services prices amid strong January 2025 PMIs exceeding forecasts at 51.0 expansionary. Heightened trade tensions from anticipated U.S. tariffs under the incoming administration have lifted German bund yields by 15 basis points this week, steepening the ECB forward curve and reducing cut expectations. ECB officials, including Lagarde, have flagged upside inflation risks in recent speeches, though the deposit rate remains at 3.0% post-December cut. Upcoming February CPI release and March policy meeting will be pivotal catalysts shaping this hawkish repricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen