Recent euro-area inflation data, with headline CPI rising to 3.2% in May 2026 and core measures accelerating to 2.5% amid energy price surges linked to geopolitical tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 97.8% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10-11 meeting. This positions the central bank to address upside inflation risks and potential second-round effects while the labor market remains resilient, consistent with economist surveys showing over 90% consensus for the move after the April hold at 2.00%. Trader positioning reflects the data-dependent policy stance signaled by policymakers, though a sharp and sustained decline in energy costs or weaker incoming indicators could still support a hold outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 97.8%
No change 1.8%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$672,335 Vol.
$672,335 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
2%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
98%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 97.8%
No change 1.8%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$672,335 Vol.
$672,335 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
2%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
98%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent euro-area inflation data, with headline CPI rising to 3.2% in May 2026 and core measures accelerating to 2.5% amid energy price surges linked to geopolitical tensions, represent the primary driver behind the 97.8% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10-11 meeting. This positions the central bank to address upside inflation risks and potential second-round effects while the labor market remains resilient, consistent with economist surveys showing over 90% consensus for the move after the April hold at 2.00%. Trader positioning reflects the data-dependent policy stance signaled by policymakers, though a sharp and sustained decline in energy costs or weaker incoming indicators could still support a hold outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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