Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on April 19, edging out 12°C (25.5%) and 14°C (22%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid a cool northwest airflow. The latest KNMI guidance projects a 14°C maximum with moderate showers alternating with sun, 50% precipitation chance, northwest winds at force 3, and just 30% sunshine, factors that could cap temperatures through reduced insolation if clouds persist or boost them to 14°C with clearer breaks. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover around 13°C, consistent with April climatological highs near 12–13°C at Schiphol Airport, the resolution station. New model runs and observations on April 18 may sharpen the outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Amsterdam on April 19?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 19?
13°C 35%
12°C 26%
14°C 22%
15°C 12%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
5%
11°C
12%
12°C
26%
13°C
35%
14°C
22%
15°C
12%
16°C
6%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 35%
12°C 26%
14°C 22%
15°C 12%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
5%
11°C
12%
12°C
26%
13°C
35%
14°C
22%
15°C
12%
16°C
6%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 17, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 13°C high in Amsterdam on April 19, edging out 12°C (25.5%) and 14°C (22%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid a cool northwest airflow. The latest KNMI guidance projects a 14°C maximum with moderate showers alternating with sun, 50% precipitation chance, northwest winds at force 3, and just 30% sunshine, factors that could cap temperatures through reduced insolation if clouds persist or boost them to 14°C with clearer breaks. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover around 13°C, consistent with April climatological highs near 12–13°C at Schiphol Airport, the resolution station. New model runs and observations on April 18 may sharpen the outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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