Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 Vol.
$105,539 Vol.
7. Mai 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 Vol.
$105,539 Vol.
7. Mai 2026
27°C or below
$20,602 Vol.
No
28°C
$25,700 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,049 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,049 Vol.
No
31°C
$13,698 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,192 Vol.
No
33°C
$10,038 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$9,292 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,180 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,362 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$3,377 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volumen
$105,539Enddatum
7. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$105,539Enddatum
7. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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