Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, aggregated by services like IMGW and international outlets, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing settled conditions and afternoon clouds, elevating market-implied probabilities for these outcomes to 49.5% and 29.0%, respectively. This reflects a warming trend from April 17's milder 14°C high (57°F), amid Central Europe's mild spring synoptic pattern with light winds minimizing cooling. Mid-April climatology averages 14-16°C highs, but current model consensus favors above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to potential cloud variations; traders monitor evening IMGW updates and real-time observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
17°C 50%
18°C 29%
16°C 13%
19°C 8%
$12,113 Vol.
$12,113 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
13%
17°C
50%
18°C
29%
19°C
8%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 50%
18°C 29%
16°C 13%
19°C 8%
$12,113 Vol.
$12,113 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
13%
17°C
50%
18°C
29%
19°C
8%
20°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, aggregated by services like IMGW and international outlets, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing settled conditions and afternoon clouds, elevating market-implied probabilities for these outcomes to 49.5% and 29.0%, respectively. This reflects a warming trend from April 17's milder 14°C high (57°F), amid Central Europe's mild spring synoptic pattern with light winds minimizing cooling. Mid-April climatology averages 14-16°C highs, but current model consensus favors above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to potential cloud variations; traders monitor evening IMGW updates and real-time observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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