Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 10. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 10. Juli?
18°C 100.0%
13°C oder weniger <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$53,364 Vol.
$53,364 Vol.
10. Juli 2026
13°C oder weniger
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Ja
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C oder höher
Nein
18°C 100.0%
13°C oder weniger <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$53,364 Vol.
$53,364 Vol.
10. Juli 2026
13°C oder weniger
$330 Vol.
Nein
14°C
$515 Vol.
Nein
15°C
$1,475 Vol.
Nein
16°C
$2,656 Vol.
Nein
17°C
$9,769 Vol.
Nein
18°C
$13,244 Vol.
Ja
19°C
$8,917 Vol.
Nein
20°C
$9,561 Vol.
Nein
21°C
$4,318 Vol.
Nein
22°C
$1,451 Vol.
Nein
23°C oder höher
$1,128 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$53,364Enddatum
10. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$53,364Enddatum
10. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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