Current numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate a warm southerly flow over central Poland on June 21 that supports afternoon maximum temperatures of 29–32 °C in Warsaw, tempered by scattered thundery showers and associated cloud cover that cap extreme heating. This consensus, reinforced by recent GFS and regional model outputs showing modest instability and a modest dew-point surge, places the highest probability on outcomes at or below 31 °C. Historical June climatology for Warsaw averages near 23 °C, so the current pattern represents a notable but not record anomaly. Updated model guidance expected later today and tomorrow morning will refine timing of any convective cells and the precise peak reading used for market resolution.