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icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Kein Staatschef 2.7%

Polymarket

$37,543,022 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Kein Staatschef 2.7%

Polymarket

$37,543,022 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,416,813 Vol.

84%

Alireza Arafi

$2,301,744 Vol.

3%

Reza Pahlavi

$649,507 Vol.

3%

Kein Staatschef

$1,132,231 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$900,918 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$752,667 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,409,448 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$927,206 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$827,474 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,000,761 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$432,050 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$525,259 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,134,943 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$798,667 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$391,847 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,912 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$138,797 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$205,712 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$191,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$829,871 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$425,058 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,341,512 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$234,141 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$379,888 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,034,875 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,090,055 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$275,534 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$248,562 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$299,541 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$334,608 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus at 84.3% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader through the end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' unanimous March 2026 selection following Ali Khamenei's death in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. The rapid transition consolidated power around the late leader's son via established clerical and security networks, including IRGC ties, despite historical resistance to hereditary succession. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf stem from the absence of viable competing factions or immediate challenges to the new arrangement within the resolution window. No major subsequent leadership shifts or constitutional crises have altered this positioning since the March confirmation.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$37,543,022
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds overwhelming trader consensus at 84.3% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader through the end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' unanimous March 2026 selection following Ali Khamenei's death in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. The rapid transition consolidated power around the late leader's son via established clerical and security networks, including IRGC ties, despite historical resistance to hereditary succession. Low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf stem from the absence of viable competing factions or immediate challenges to the new arrangement within the resolution window. No major subsequent leadership shifts or constitutional crises have altered this positioning since the March confirmation.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$37,543,022
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 84%, gefolgt von „Alireza Arafi" mit 3%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 84¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $37.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 84%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Alireza Arafi" mit 3%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.