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Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Kein Staatschef 4.9%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.6%

Polymarket

$38,945,293 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Kein Staatschef 4.9%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.6%

Polymarket

$38,945,293 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,262,479 Vol.

82%

Kein Staatschef

$1,154,914 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$676,426 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,127,023 Vol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$2,315,357 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$778,559 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,951 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$920,059 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,449 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,432,610 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,743 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$438,367 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$542,834 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,148,439 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$807,345 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$399,831 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,928 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$147,449 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$216,293 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$202,458 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$837,364 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$436,815 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,351,594 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$241,130 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$389,913 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,193,842 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$286,923 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$255,061 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,921 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$344,356 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins the dominant market consensus for his continued role through the end of the year. The selection reflected rapid regime efforts to restore continuity during active conflict, with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps prioritizing institutional stability over traditional objections to dynastic succession. Mojtaba has remained out of public view since then due to reported injuries and security concerns, fueling speculation about his health and decision-making capacity, yet senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed ongoing engagement and his involvement in key matters. Alternative candidates such as Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini received consideration during the transition but lack comparable institutional momentum or support networks at present. The elevated probability assigned to Mojtaba reflects trader assessments of entrenched power structures and the absence of confirmed mechanisms or developments that would trigger a near-term leadership change before December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,945,293
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, underpins the dominant market consensus for his continued role through the end of the year. The selection reflected rapid regime efforts to restore continuity during active conflict, with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps prioritizing institutional stability over traditional objections to dynastic succession. Mojtaba has remained out of public view since then due to reported injuries and security concerns, fueling speculation about his health and decision-making capacity, yet senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed ongoing engagement and his involvement in key matters. Alternative candidates such as Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini received consideration during the transition but lack comparable institutional momentum or support networks at present. The elevated probability assigned to Mojtaba reflects trader assessments of entrenched power structures and the absence of confirmed mechanisms or developments that would trigger a near-term leadership change before December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,945,293
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 82%, gefolgt von „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 82¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $38.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 82%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.