Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

icon for Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Welt·Mittlerer Osten

Iran-Führer Ende 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 83.1%

Kein Staatschef 4.8%

Reza Pahlavi 2.8%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,471,775 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 83.1%

Kein Staatschef 4.8%

Reza Pahlavi 2.8%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,471,775 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,495,749 Vol.

83%

Kein Staatschef

$1,161,732 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$683,727 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,131,578 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$948,518 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$2,320,910 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,023,135 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$780,812 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$922,923 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$835,207 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,443,784 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$406,939 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,989 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$244,071 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$457,784 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,157,756 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$228,205 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$859,577 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$441,490 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,215,048 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$563,115 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$864,867 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$155,679 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$206,808 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,360,621 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$399,096 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$295,040 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$267,607 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$314,518 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$353,629 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position in the market stems from his appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the February 28 killing of his father Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that opened the current conflict. As the sitting holder of the office with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and control over key decision-making, he faces limited near-term displacement risk before year-end. Recent statements by President Masoud Pezeshkian in mid-September have reaffirmed Mojtaba’s authority and health amid ongoing rumors tied to his prolonged public absence and reported injuries. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi and President Pezeshkian, register minimal probabilities because the succession process has already concluded and the short resolution window leaves little scope for abrupt institutional change.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$39,471,775
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position in the market stems from his appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the February 28 killing of his father Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that opened the current conflict. As the sitting holder of the office with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and control over key decision-making, he faces limited near-term displacement risk before year-end. Recent statements by President Masoud Pezeshkian in mid-September have reaffirmed Mojtaba’s authority and health amid ongoing rumors tied to his prolonged public absence and reported injuries. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi and President Pezeshkian, register minimal probabilities because the succession process has already concluded and the short resolution window leaves little scope for abrupt institutional change.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$39,471,775
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Reza Pahlavi Iran im Jahr 2026 führen?

Wird Reza Pahlavi Iran im Jahr 2026 führen?

3%
Ja
icon for Wird Delcy Rodríguez Ende 2026 die faktische Anführerin Venezuelas sein?

Wird Delcy Rodríguez Ende 2026 die faktische Anführerin Venezuelas sein?

94%
Ja
icon for Wird das iranische Regime vor 2027 stürzen?

Wird das iranische Regime vor 2027 stürzen?

8%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 32 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 83%, gefolgt von „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 83¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 83% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $39.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 32 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" ist „Mojtaba Khamenei" mit 83%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 83% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Kein Staatschef" mit 5%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Iran-Führer Ende 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.