Mojtaba Khamenei's selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, anchors the market's strong trader consensus on his continued leadership through year-end. This outcome aligns with constitutional succession procedures and Mojtaba's established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which bolstered his elevation despite limited prior public administrative experience. Recent questions around his public absence and reported health concerns have not altered the positioning, as no alternative candidates have gained institutional traction or triggered a new Assembly vote. Other listed figures face structural barriers such as weaker security apparatus connections or prior roles outside the core succession framework. The implied probability reflects traders' assessment of regime continuity under wartime conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Führer Ende 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.4%
Kein Staatschef 3.4%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,538,110 Vol.
$37,538,110 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Kein Staatschef
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%
Alireza Arafi 3.4%
Kein Staatschef 3.4%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,538,110 Vol.
$37,538,110 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Kein Staatschef
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination amid the 2026 Iran war, anchors the market's strong trader consensus on his continued leadership through year-end. This outcome aligns with constitutional succession procedures and Mojtaba's established ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which bolstered his elevation despite limited prior public administrative experience. Recent questions around his public absence and reported health concerns have not altered the positioning, as no alternative candidates have gained institutional traction or triggered a new Assembly vote. Other listed figures face structural barriers such as weaker security apparatus connections or prior roles outside the core succession framework. The implied probability reflects traders' assessment of regime continuity under wartime conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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