**Ongoing ceasefire and active diplomatic negotiations are the main drivers keeping the “No” outcome at 84.5%.** Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that opened the 2026 Iran conflict in late February, the parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire in early April that has since been extended. Direct talks, including high-level meetings in Islamabad, have produced draft texts covering nuclear limits, sanctions relief, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and asset releases. Recent June 2026 reporting shows both sides exchanging proposals and signaling proximity to an interim memorandum, with U.S. officials describing the process as advancing. No U.S. ground offensive to seize or control Iranian territory has occurred, and current momentum centers on de-escalation through diplomacy rather than escalation to invasion. Late-breaking shifts in negotiations or renewed strikes remain the primary variables that could still alter the timeline before the end of 2026.