Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges, including Operation Epic Fury airstrikes and naval actions launched in late February 2026, have centered on missile facilities, air defenses, and shipping lanes rather than large-scale ground operations or territorial occupation. A temporary ceasefire took effect in April, followed by Pakistani-brokered talks and a reported 15-point U.S. proposal addressing nuclear limits, missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access. As of early June, fresh exchanges continue alongside statements from both sides signaling interest in a broader deal before year-end. These developments, combined with the high logistical and political costs of any sustained ground campaign, underpin traders’ strong consensus against a U.S. invasion by 2027.