Negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, have advanced toward a framework agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease sanctions, and address Iran's nuclear program, with President Trump stating a deal may be signed imminently. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, naval blockade, and limited defensive operations, Washington has prioritized diplomatic channels over expanded ground commitments despite earlier threats and military buildup. Analysts note significant risks and domestic opposition to a full-scale invasion involving occupation or regime change. With only months remaining before 2027, trader pricing at 85.5% for no invasion reflects the shift from kinetic escalation to de-escalation talks and the high barriers to committing ground forces.