Ongoing ceasefire talks and diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including high-level direct meetings in Islamabad and revised peace proposals through third parties like Pakistan, have shaped trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began in late February 2026 and a subsequent naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, both sides extended a temporary halt to hostilities in April while pursuing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent reports of progress toward a memorandum of understanding by late May underscore the current emphasis on diplomacy over territorial occupation, consistent with the 82.5% implied probability on “No.”