Diplomatic momentum and a temporary ceasefire have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Indirect nuclear talks resumed in early 2026 and produced a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire in April, followed by continued high-level engagement through May that U.S. officials described as closing gaps on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access. President Trump has repeatedly signaled no rush toward military escalation while additional U.S. forces remain positioned for pressure rather than occupation. These verifiable developments—strikes limited to air and naval targets earlier in the year, followed by sustained negotiations—have reinforced the market’s 84.5% implied probability on “No,” reflecting consensus that full-scale territorial operations face high costs and are not the current policy trajectory.