Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. As of mid-June 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached agreed wording on a memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, and extend the April ceasefire for 60 days while deferring nuclear and sanctions talks. President Trump canceled planned strikes upon confirmation of high-level Iranian approval, with Pakistan serving as mediator. Ongoing U.S. operations remain limited to targeted self-defense strikes rather than offensive ground maneuvers. These developments, following months of airstrikes since February 2026, have shifted momentum toward negotiated de-escalation and reduced near-term prospects for a full-scale invasion.