U.S. policy toward Cuba centers on sustained economic pressure through a January 2026 fuel blockade and tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, alongside public calls for leadership change or a negotiated “friendly takeover.” Military planners have reviewed contingency options, including limited strikes or air assaults, yet senior officials have stated that no invasion rehearsals or large-scale preparations are underway, while U.S. forces remain committed to the separate Iran conflict. Cuban military capabilities are limited and dated, raising the logistical and political costs of any ground operation that would require tens of thousands of troops. With the calendar already at mid-August and no territorial seizure observed, traders assign only an 8.5% chance that an invasion occurs before year-end.