Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, triggering an interim three-person council under Article 111 of the constitution and a rapid Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father unanimously in early March and remains in office amid ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances, and reported injuries from the strikes. Trader sentiment on further leadership change reflects internal divisions between hardline security elements and reformist-leaning officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, economic strain from the war, and uncertainty over Mojtaba’s policy direction. Recent meetings between the president and supreme leader, plus IRGC influence, have reinforced short-term continuity, keeping probabilities for additional near-term transitions low while longer horizons incorporate risks from escalation, negotiations, or internal power realignments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$23,750,781 Vol.
22. Aug. 2026
22. August
<1%
31. August
1%
30. September
4%
31. Oktober
8%
30. November
10%
31. Dezember
16%
30. Juni 2027
25%
$23,750,781 Vol.
22. August
$77,693 Vol.
<1%
31. August
$1,231,211 Vol.
1%
30. September
$474,831 Vol.
4%
31. Oktober
$20,298 Vol.
8%
30. November
$17,936 Vol.
10%
31. Dezember
$4,073,493 Vol.
16%
30. Juni 2027
$247,130 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, triggering an interim three-person council under Article 111 of the constitution and a rapid Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father unanimously in early March and remains in office amid ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances, and reported injuries from the strikes. Trader sentiment on further leadership change reflects internal divisions between hardline security elements and reformist-leaning officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, economic strain from the war, and uncertainty over Mojtaba’s policy direction. Recent meetings between the president and supreme leader, plus IRGC influence, have reinforced short-term continuity, keeping probabilities for additional near-term transitions low while longer horizons incorporate risks from escalation, negotiations, or internal power realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volumen
$23,750,781Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, triggering an interim three-person council under Article 111 of the constitution and a rapid Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father unanimously in early March and remains in office amid ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances, and reported injuries from the strikes. Trader sentiment on further leadership change reflects internal divisions between hardline security elements and reformist-leaning officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, economic strain from the war, and uncertainty over Mojtaba’s policy direction. Recent meetings between the president and supreme leader, plus IRGC influence, have reinforced short-term continuity, keeping probabilities for additional near-term transitions low while longer horizons incorporate risks from escalation, negotiations, or internal power realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,750,781Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes, triggering an interim three-person council under Article 111 of the constitution and a rapid Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father unanimously in early March and remains in office amid ongoing regional conflict, limited public appearances, and reported injuries from the strikes. Trader sentiment on further leadership change reflects internal divisions between hardline security elements and reformist-leaning officials around President Masoud Pezeshkian, economic strain from the war, and uncertainty over Mojtaba’s policy direction. Recent meetings between the president and supreme leader, plus IRGC influence, have reinforced short-term continuity, keeping probabilities for additional near-term transitions low while longer horizons incorporate risks from escalation, negotiations, or internal power realignments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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