The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts unanimously selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. This rapid process, backed by IRGC influence amid wartime pressures, shifted trader focus to Mojtaba's untested authority, reported health issues, and limited public role, alongside questions over IRGC consolidation of power and potential internal challenges from clerics or reformist factions. Ongoing conflict, economic strains, and regional diplomacy continue to shape assessments of further changes before mid-2027, with scheduled Assembly oversight and any escalation in hostilities serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$23,955,347 Vol.
22. Aug. 2026
22. August
<1%
31. August
1%
30. September
3%
31. Oktober
8%
30. November
10%
31. Dezember
16%
30. Juni 2027
25%
$23,955,347 Vol.
22. August
$78,726 Vol.
<1%
31. August
$1,433,117 Vol.
1%
30. September
$474,901 Vol.
3%
31. Oktober
$20,354 Vol.
8%
30. November
$17,936 Vol.
10%
31. Dezember
$4,074,927 Vol.
16%
30. Juni 2027
$247,196 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts unanimously selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. This rapid process, backed by IRGC influence amid wartime pressures, shifted trader focus to Mojtaba's untested authority, reported health issues, and limited public role, alongside questions over IRGC consolidation of power and potential internal challenges from clerics or reformist factions. Ongoing conflict, economic strains, and regional diplomacy continue to shape assessments of further changes before mid-2027, with scheduled Assembly oversight and any escalation in hostilities serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volumen
$23,955,347Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts unanimously selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. This rapid process, backed by IRGC influence amid wartime pressures, shifted trader focus to Mojtaba's untested authority, reported health issues, and limited public role, alongside questions over IRGC consolidation of power and potential internal challenges from clerics or reformist factions. Ongoing conflict, economic strains, and regional diplomacy continue to shape assessments of further changes before mid-2027, with scheduled Assembly oversight and any escalation in hostilities serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,955,347Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrike during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts unanimously selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. This rapid process, backed by IRGC influence amid wartime pressures, shifted trader focus to Mojtaba's untested authority, reported health issues, and limited public role, alongside questions over IRGC consolidation of power and potential internal challenges from clerics or reformist factions. Ongoing conflict, economic strains, and regional diplomacy continue to shape assessments of further changes before mid-2027, with scheduled Assembly oversight and any escalation in hostilities serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen