Escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace since February 2026, following joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations that prompted regional shutdowns across multiple FIRs. Airspace reopened intermittently through July amid a short-lived ceasefire that later collapsed, with renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and EASA advisories highlighting ongoing risks to the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace remains open for commercial operations, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian responses, Israeli defensive measures, or diplomatic pauses that could trigger new restrictions before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$26,920,786 Vol.
15. Aug. 2026
15. August
1%
31. August
7%
$26,920,786 Vol.
15. August
$906,328 Vol.
1%
31. August
$991,274 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace since February 2026, following joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations that prompted regional shutdowns across multiple FIRs. Airspace reopened intermittently through July amid a short-lived ceasefire that later collapsed, with renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and EASA advisories highlighting ongoing risks to the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace remains open for commercial operations, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian responses, Israeli defensive measures, or diplomatic pauses that could trigger new restrictions before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volumen
$26,920,786Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace since February 2026, following joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations that prompted regional shutdowns across multiple FIRs. Airspace reopened intermittently through July amid a short-lived ceasefire that later collapsed, with renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and EASA advisories highlighting ongoing risks to the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace remains open for commercial operations, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian responses, Israeli defensive measures, or diplomatic pauses that could trigger new restrictions before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$26,920,786Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace since February 2026, following joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations that prompted regional shutdowns across multiple FIRs. Airspace reopened intermittently through July amid a short-lived ceasefire that later collapsed, with renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and EASA advisories highlighting ongoing risks to the Tel Aviv FIR. As of mid-August 2026, Israeli airspace remains open for commercial operations, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility. Trader sentiment reflects assessments of further Iranian responses, Israeli defensive measures, or diplomatic pauses that could trigger new restrictions before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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