Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the July 2026 ceasefire breakdown, have kept regional airspace risks elevated even as Israel's Tel Aviv FIR remains open. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 tied to strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, followed by phased reopenings and continued EASA caution advisories. Trader probabilities stay low for near-term full closures, reflecting the current operational status, limited airline return, and absence of fresh major triggers in August. Volatility persists due to proxy threats and diplomatic signals, with any intensification in strikes or interceptions likely to shift odds rapidly toward specific resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$26,966,248 Vol.
15. Aug. 2026
15. August
1%
31. August
7%
$26,966,248 Vol.
15. August
$946,512 Vol.
1%
31. August
$996,552 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the July 2026 ceasefire breakdown, have kept regional airspace risks elevated even as Israel's Tel Aviv FIR remains open. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 tied to strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, followed by phased reopenings and continued EASA caution advisories. Trader probabilities stay low for near-term full closures, reflecting the current operational status, limited airline return, and absence of fresh major triggers in August. Volatility persists due to proxy threats and diplomatic signals, with any intensification in strikes or interceptions likely to shift odds rapidly toward specific resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volumen
$26,966,248Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the July 2026 ceasefire breakdown, have kept regional airspace risks elevated even as Israel's Tel Aviv FIR remains open. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 tied to strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, followed by phased reopenings and continued EASA caution advisories. Trader probabilities stay low for near-term full closures, reflecting the current operational status, limited airline return, and absence of fresh major triggers in August. Volatility persists due to proxy threats and diplomatic signals, with any intensification in strikes or interceptions likely to shift odds rapidly toward specific resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$26,966,248Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz after the July 2026 ceasefire breakdown, have kept regional airspace risks elevated even as Israel's Tel Aviv FIR remains open. Multiple temporary closures occurred between February and July 2026 tied to strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, followed by phased reopenings and continued EASA caution advisories. Trader probabilities stay low for near-term full closures, reflecting the current operational status, limited airline return, and absence of fresh major triggers in August. Volatility persists due to proxy threats and diplomatic signals, with any intensification in strikes or interceptions likely to shift odds rapidly toward specific resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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