Hamas has repeatedly rejected phased disarmament proposals tied to the second phase of the Trump-backed Gaza ceasefire, insisting that any discussion of handing over weapons or destroying tunnels requires prior full Israeli withdrawal and binding guarantees on governance and reconstruction. The Board of Peace's April deadlines passed without agreement, with Hamas citing security risks to its forces and demanding sequencing changes during Cairo talks. Israel has conditioned further progress and reconstruction aid on demilitarization, while mediators explore bridging options amid ongoing ceasefire violations. These entrenched positions on sequencing and leverage have produced trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term acceptance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird die Hamas zustimmen, bis... zu entwaffnen?
$1,997,859 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
5%
$1,997,859 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
5%
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Hamas has repeatedly rejected phased disarmament proposals tied to the second phase of the Trump-backed Gaza ceasefire, insisting that any discussion of handing over weapons or destroying tunnels requires prior full Israeli withdrawal and binding guarantees on governance and reconstruction. The Board of Peace's April deadlines passed without agreement, with Hamas citing security risks to its forces and demanding sequencing changes during Cairo talks. Israel has conditioned further progress and reconstruction aid on demilitarization, while mediators explore bridging options amid ongoing ceasefire violations. These entrenched positions on sequencing and leverage have produced trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term acceptance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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