**Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization momentum amid persistent regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, the most prominent potential signatory, continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to accession. Ongoing post-ceasefire dynamics from the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with recent Iran-related hostilities, have hardened public and official positions across Arab states against rapid diplomatic shifts. Speculative discussions involving Lebanon (post-Hezbollah disarmament) or Syria remain preliminary without concrete timelines or commitments. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, and subsequent 2026 visits and bilateral ties have not produced additional members. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled breakthroughs on core sticking points, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns of slow, precondition-heavy progress in Arab-Israeli diplomacy.