Trader consensus on the "Iran successfully targets shipping" market tilts against a yes outcome, driven by Iran's preference for proxy actions via Houthis over direct Hormuz Strait strikes amid Israel tensions. Key recent catalyst: Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries container ship, an escalation short of missile or drone hits on neutral vessels, followed by U.S. warnings and naval patrols reinforcing deterrence. Houthi Red Sea disruptions persist, but Iran's direct restraint holds despite threats post its April 13-14 missile barrage on Israel. Upcoming Israeli responses or U.S. elections could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor calibrated escalation over overt shipping attacks disrupting global oil flows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
April 1
38%
April 2
38%
April 3
40%
April 4
35%
April 5
29%
April 6
26%
April 7
47%
April 8
47%
April 9
47%
April 10
41%
$2 Vol.
April 1
38%
April 2
38%
April 3
40%
April 4
35%
April 5
29%
April 6
26%
April 7
47%
April 8
47%
April 9
47%
April 10
41%
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Iran successfully targets shipping" market tilts against a yes outcome, driven by Iran's preference for proxy actions via Houthis over direct Hormuz Strait strikes amid Israel tensions. Key recent catalyst: Iran's April 13 seizure of the Israel-linked MSC Aries container ship, an escalation short of missile or drone hits on neutral vessels, followed by U.S. warnings and naval patrols reinforcing deterrence. Houthi Red Sea disruptions persist, but Iran's direct restraint holds despite threats post its April 13-14 missile barrage on Israel. Upcoming Israeli responses or U.S. elections could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor calibrated escalation over overt shipping attacks disrupting global oil flows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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