Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the key near-term driver influencing June 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations around 1.10–1.24°C above pre-industrial levels. This transition from neutral conditions, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has produced recent annual averages near 1.2°C, supports the closely matched market-implied odds across these bins. Uncertainties in El Niño strength, timing of atmospheric coupling, and regional sea-surface temperature patterns during early summer contribute to the spread, as models show variability in peak intensity and its lagged global temperature effects. New ENSO updates and June observational data from agencies like NOAA will refine these assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 35%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
28%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
35%
1.20–1.24ºC
30%
1.25–1.29ºC
28%
>1.29ºC
26%
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 35%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
28%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
35%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
30%
1.25–1.29ºC
$64 Vol.
28%
>1.29ºC
$352 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the key near-term driver influencing June 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations around 1.10–1.24°C above pre-industrial levels. This transition from neutral conditions, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has produced recent annual averages near 1.2°C, supports the closely matched market-implied odds across these bins. Uncertainties in El Niño strength, timing of atmospheric coupling, and regional sea-surface temperature patterns during early summer contribute to the spread, as models show variability in peak intensity and its lagged global temperature effects. New ENSO updates and June observational data from agencies like NOAA will refine these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$593Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the key near-term driver influencing June 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations around 1.10–1.24°C above pre-industrial levels. This transition from neutral conditions, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has produced recent annual averages near 1.2°C, supports the closely matched market-implied odds across these bins. Uncertainties in El Niño strength, timing of atmospheric coupling, and regional sea-surface temperature patterns during early summer contribute to the spread, as models show variability in peak intensity and its lagged global temperature effects. New ENSO updates and June observational data from agencies like NOAA will refine these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$593Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the key near-term driver influencing June 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations around 1.10–1.24°C above pre-industrial levels. This transition from neutral conditions, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has produced recent annual averages near 1.2°C, supports the closely matched market-implied odds across these bins. Uncertainties in El Niño strength, timing of atmospheric coupling, and regional sea-surface temperature patterns during early summer contribute to the spread, as models show variability in peak intensity and its lagged global temperature effects. New ENSO updates and June observational data from agencies like NOAA will refine these assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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