Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows in New York City on June 27 will likely settle in the upper 60s to low 70s, with ensemble spreads centered near 68–72 °F amid partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. This narrow range of outcomes explains why the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins hold the highest implied probabilities while neighboring bins trail. Key variables still in play include the precise timing of any clearing, which controls radiative cooling rates, and boundary-layer moisture that can suppress minimum temperatures by several degrees. Updated model runs tonight and early-morning observations from Central Park will narrow the remaining uncertainty ahead of market resolution.