National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance confirmed an overnight low of 54–55°F for New York City on May 25, 2026, driven by mild southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and minimal radiational cooling under a weak pressure gradient. These conditions aligned closely with climatological norms for late May, when average lows hover near 61°F but can dip into the mid-50s with limited clear-sky nighttime cooling. The market-implied consensus at 100% for the 54–55°F bin reflects traders’ confidence in the official daily minimum from the National Weather Service Climatological Report. A shift would require an unexpected revision in verified station data or measurement methodology, both of which remain stable once finalized.